Sunday, July 16, 2006

Pot equity

This is a concept I'm just starting to grasp. I'm starting to understand now why its good to be aggressive on the flop with draws even when you don't yet have a made hand.

PokerStars 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.comFlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Qd, Td.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

--> Typical loose passive table at this level. Two limpers. I also limp with QTs. This hand plays well multiway so I don't want to price the others out of the pot by raising here.

Flop: (5 SB) 2d, Kh, Jd (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

--> This is a great flop. I pick up both a flush draw and a straight draw. This gives me around 15 outs. With 15 outs I'm a favorite to win this hand at showdown. I calculate by pot equity as 54%. With 5 players in the hand the average player has 20% pot equity. I bet out my draw based on pot equity.

Turn: (4.50 BB) [2d, Kh, Jd] 2h (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

--> Turn doesn't help me any. It's just 1 bet to continue and I have pot odds. That's a good thing about my flop bet was that it bloated the pot to give me pot odds to chase if I miss my draw on the turn.

River: (8.50 BB) [2d, Kh, Jd 2h] 9s (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls $0.04 (All-In).

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

Results below:
MP1 has Js Th (two pair, jacks and twos).
Hero has Qd Td (straight, king high).
SB has 8d 9d (two pair, nines and twos).
Outcome: Hero wins 11.50 BB.

I hit my straight draw on the river to win a nice pot. Too bad it wasn't the flush draw. SB was drawing dead with an inferior flush and I likely would have won a lot more on the river.

No comments: