The Smart Money by Michael Konik

I recently read The Smart Money: How the World's Best Sports Bettors Beat the Bookies Out of Millions by Michael Konik. It was very good. I'd heard about it here and there on the 2+2 forums.

Konik is a freelance writer for men's magazines like GQ, Maxim, and Outside writing about destination golf and other stereotype mens lifestyle pursuits. While doing a story on big time sports betting he meets Rick Matthews from a syndicate known as the Brain Trust. During a round of golf together Rick proposes a plan for the author (who is from L.A.) to pose as a new money high roller sports gambler in Las Vegas.

Konik's job in the Brain Trust is to find a Vegas sportsbook who will take large sports wagers in the tens of thousands a game and to bet the games Matthews picks. The Brain Trust needs to use "beards" to get their bets down as Vegas and other bookies will not take "sharp" action from professional sports bettors like Matthews who are betting with an edge on the house.

Konik settles in at Caesars Palace and gets RFB (room, food, beverage) while posing as a player, a sports high roller with money but no clue. From there the author and his girlfriend enjoy high roller casino life while trying to stay a step ahead of suspicious bookies who come to suspect he may be fronting sharp action.

Along the way Konik makes lots of money and learns a lot about sports betting. Indirectly we can deduce some details of betting strategy. The Brain Trust in general sees value in underdogs, as "squares", the regular folks, will overvalue favourites.

One thing I hadn't thought of is that underdogs and the under in over/under aka "totals" tend to go together. Which makes sense after I thought about it for a bit. If a football favourite loses the game or wins and fails to cover it can be largely caused by failures in offensive execution. Red zone stalls and turnovers, missed field goals, big plays called back. All of these factors which help the underdogs also drive down scoring.

It was an entertaining and educational book and a good read. I recommend it. I had the honour of being the first to read it from my library as they ordered it in for me from the request a book on their website.

I'd like to get into sports betting. Back in high school I used to do some imaginary 11-10 football plays for a few weeks each NFL season before falling into the red and giving up. It's a new world today thanks to the Internet. If I wanted to I could chuck say $110 into a bank account for sports, then make a small deposit somewhere, then make $1.10 plays.

If the picks break even (a pure random algorithm will be lucky half the time) then over say 100 plays I'd win 50 times for $50 and lose 50 times for -$55. So for only $5 of expectation I could make 100 small plays just to get started. Alas for now sports betting and options trading (the third side of the triangle) will stay on the sideline. Still working on poker and hopefully some interesting developments at the tables to report in the coming months.