In recent advertising, ALC Pro-Line has been emphasizing a more studious approach. The commercials talk about analyzing odds, studying matchups, etc. When you're ready to make your picks, then Pro-Line payouts are in line with anything out there.
This is a change in the tone of the marketing. Historically the Pro-Line advertising has featured this goofy, oafish guy and his friends. They go to corner stores and make their picks. The goofy guy is clumsy and always knocking over a display or something. He just makes silly picks and it's all good fun among friends.
In the new advertising it's a departure for Atlantic Lotto, normally a monopoly, to even acknowledge there are other options for sports betting. On the same mainstream channels and TV shows Pro-Line buys advertising, there are also commercials for William Hill, 888, Bodog, Party, Odds Shark, various online casinos.
By appealing to the more serious player, ALC seems to realize they have lost online sports business to offshore books. In the past I calculated that Pro-Line was paying about 77 cents per dollar wagered, keeping a 23% vig for itself. This is excessive and unfair. Even recreational players who aren't good with math, who still like to play a few games every week, could instinctively tell something isn't right with the payouts.
I logged in recently due to an ALC promo. I have an ALC.ca account from promos in the past. Over on Pro-Line I noticed that payouts have indeed improved. On a two-game parley with even payouts - the house pays out the same on both sides of the bet on a totals or point spread wager. In these games, on a $10 wager the house pays out $36.10 to a winner.
So if you bought 4 $10 tickets to cover the four possible combinations. You spend $40. Three tickets lose, and one will win $36.10. So for $40 spent, $36.10 is paid out to winners, or a $90.25 payout for every $100 wagered. The house keeps $9.75 of every $100, a 9.75% vig.
This seems reasonable and is in line with standard 11/10 vig at sports books. So +1 to ALC for improving their payouts and truth in advertising.
is Pro-Line beatable
At 9.75% vig it may creates some opportunities for playing for fun and profit. The break even point can be calculated on a two-game parley at .9025. So on a $10 wager you can win $26.10 or lose $10. Let X be the fraction of the time you win your bet.
26.1x - 10(1 - x) = 0
x = 0.277
So the break even is about 28%. If you use a random number generator to make your picks you would win by pure luck 25%. Remember you need to win two bets to win the ticket.
So if from your analysis you have two good picks then the square root of 0.277 is .5263. So if you can run 53% and find two games priced at 1.9 (the .9025 payout) then you would be profitable.
If you only have one good pick there is still an opportunity. On a game where the house pays out the same on both sides you can use the random number generator to make the pick and you would win the bet half of the time. So you can run 50% on events you know nothing about such as Mexican soccer, Euroleague basketball, or whatever. As long as the payout is the same on both sides of the bet.
Or buy two tickets, with your good pick, and both sides of the even payout game.
With one good pick, and one random pick at 50%, you need to be 55.4% on your good pick to be profitable.
There is also a limited form of single game betting now on ALC Pro-Line. For hockey it's win the game and score in regulation. These games are attractively priced. On evenly priced games Pro-Line pays out $19 for every $20 wagered. So only a 5% vig on these moneyline plays with single-game allowed.
Now there is a slight catch where the payout is not quite 95 cents on the dollar. If the game is scoreless 0-0 at the end of regulation, then the house pays out nothing and scoops all the wagers on the game. It's a bit like the 00 in roulette, but less common. So be aware of that small risk. Still 0-0 games are uncommon in the NHL, and scoring is up this year. I haven't done the research but I'm guessing it reduces the payout to maybe 94 cents on the dollar.
Still good to know moneyline NHL at low vig. It's a good format for the players and I hope it sticks.
These games are handy for clearing play though bonuses as they pay 0.95 instead of 0.9025 on the two-game ticket. Also you only need to win one bet to win the ticket.
If you're a more casual fan and not sharp action, then a trick with ALC Pro-Line is use bonuses to improve your odds. Pro-Line and ALC run bonus promotions fairly frequently so it's good to sign up for the emails so you know when something's running.
I wonder if this will be looked back on as the good time on Pro-Line. Payouts are competitive, it is easy to get money on or off, and there are frequent promos and bonuses.
