Free Play on ALC Pro-Line

It's been a while. I haven't been active in any area recently. Poker or sports. It's not looking great that I will be doing much in either area in the foreseeable future. It is what it is I guess. I may have something somewhat later to post on but will see.

Anyway after a long dormant period there has been a noticeable increase of late in emails from Atlantic Lotto. I'd guess there is some new manager there and is driving this email outreach.

Usually this is just noise that is easily ignored. However there was an interesting Pro-Line promotion. If you make a $10 bet, then you get a $10 credit from the house for another bet.

Well I couldn't pass up that opportunity. The question becomes how to structure my plays. The way Pro-Line works is you have to parlay with at least 2 plays, betting on individual games is not available.

I unfortunately don't have time for a lot of research so I was thinking of a way to realize the EV of the free play using random picks. I found some "even" NHL totals games to pick. By "even", I mean the price from the house is the same on the over as well as the under. So if the house is indifferent to what you pick, then that's even. With the same price on the over as the under, it's well suited to using a randomized approach to picking, as there's no difference in expected outcome either way.

Although I couldn't help but do a quick cursory research on the games I picked. I ended up taking the OVER at 5.5 for Colorado at Nashville, and the UNDER at 5.5 on Carolina at Edmonton. I didn't do enough research to explain my reasoning here.

I can calculate the EV of the free play. With no research and a random selection there's a 50% chance of winning on each game. I have to win both games to win the bet. So there's a 25% chance I will win the bet using random selection for the games.

Now if I win the bet (25%) I win $20.60 is the payout on these two games. And if I lose (75%) I lose $10. So the EV is -$2.35. So for a $10 wager where the house is indifferent the expected end result in my account is $7.65. So 23.5% vig, thanks ALC. it's horrible they exploit the players like that.

Anyway on the $10 free play it would also have an EV of about $7.65. So the expected end amount in my account is $15.30, so a healthy 53% profit, and it was fun to be back in the game.