I've been playing on Bodog a bit lately. They emailed me about a $5 free play bonus for some reason so I decided to play cards with the house money. That's just enough to play $5 NL so I did that.
The Bodog card room is very good. The first thing you notice is the anonymous tables. Everything is Player1, Player2, etc. Which is different. It takes a bit of getting used to but you quickly do. The lobby is also different. It doesn't show full tables. So it's more like a casino card room where if you want to play you are escorted to a table with empty seats. You can't refuse action and camp out and cut into what looks like a better game.
I decided to give the Rush poker a try. In Bodog it's called Zone poker. The Bodog implementation of Zoom is very good. There's usually 50+ players action at levels between $5NL and $100 NL. The combination of anonymous and Zoom was interesting. I got used to it and came to like it. It makes you think about strategy as you are playing against a "field" instead of individuals who you may have reads on, or who have reads on you. So I found it was good to have a strategy thought out and try to stick to it.
I know it's still $5 NL so I shouldn't expect too much of my opponents. I was fortunate to run well over a small sample size and win a little. I'd forgotten during the PLO time about actually winning at poker and it does make the game enjoyable.
--
I think of Bodog as the anti-PokerStars. They definitely try to cater to the recreational player, and reduce some of the unseemly and predatory and (to the casual player) uncomfortable aspects of Stars. Anonymous tables, hiding full tables in the lobby, sensible limits on multitabling, no rakeback, no HUDs. All these things make Bodog different and in many ways friendlier and more comfortable than Stars. The software is pretty smooth and definitely good enough.
It's funny and apropos because recent changes at Stars are moving in the Bodog direction with elimination of SuperNova and higher VPP status, normalizing the value of FPPs, and supposed incoming restrictions on HUDs.
--
Well I guess Bodog's $5 ploy was a success. I've recovered a bit of bankroll the last few months so I think I'll give maybe $10 NL Zone on Bodog a go with my own money. If I run well and build up some more bankroll then $25 would not be inconceivable. I've played $25 NL online long in the past and it wasn't a disaster.
It's fun to be playing cards again. Over on Stars at $10 PLO though I'm down nearly 20 buyins, I noticed at Zoom I'm only down 1 buyin over less than 1,000 hands. So maybe Zoom PLO is something as well. Will think about that one a bit.
Saturday, November 07, 2015
Monday, August 24, 2015
NFL 2015 preseason pics are in
I surprised myself a bit by making some 2015 NFL preseason win totals picks. I haven't kept up with football this offseason and I wasn't really planning to. I like football and thinking about football bets but as usual time to analyze it and bankroll are challenges.
Nonetheless a marketing email from Bodog and I decided to see if I could find anything in preseason win totals. I know from last year it's tough to find value in preseason win total props. From last year's results I decided to look at bad teams from 2014 and see if there are any overly optimistic lines to take the under. These are the 6 teams who were 4-12 or worse in 2014.
The Diff column is the difference between the 2015 winline and the 2014 record. Here are some quick thoughts on all of these.
Tampa Bay the gap is 4. At -125 laying 5:4. Still I only lose this bet if the Bucs go 7-9. I don't believe there's a 45% chance the Bucs will be 7-9 or better.
Tennessee another good sized gap of 3.5 and price moved from -125.
Oakland the Raiders last year may be about where the Browns were 2 years ago. +120 premium is nice but gap is only 2.5.
Jacksonville gap is only 2.5 and young quarterback has potential to develop.
Jets since 2002 the Jets have had a number of bad seasons yet never been under 8 wins twice in a row. The last time the Jets had fewer than 8 wins twice in a row was 1995-1996 under Rich Kotite. Price at -150 is not inviting.
Washington steep price at -175 and gap is only 2.5. I think this is one where you wanted to do your research in July and hit the early lines before the price moves unfavourably.
So with that I made 2 plays
3 units Tampa Bay UNDER 6 wins -125
2 units Tennessee UNDER 5.5 wins -115
Nonetheless a marketing email from Bodog and I decided to see if I could find anything in preseason win totals. I know from last year it's tough to find value in preseason win total props. From last year's results I decided to look at bad teams from 2014 and see if there are any overly optimistic lines to take the under. These are the 6 teams who were 4-12 or worse in 2014.
| Team | 2014 Record | 2015 Winline | Price (under) | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 2-14 | 6 | -125 | +4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2-14 | 5.5 | -115 | +3.5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 3-13 | 5.5 | +120 | +2.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-13 | 5.5 | EVEN | +2.5 |
| New York Jets | 4-12 | 7.5 | -150 | +3.5 |
| Washington Redskins | 4-12 | 6.5 | -175 | +2.5 |
The Diff column is the difference between the 2015 winline and the 2014 record. Here are some quick thoughts on all of these.
Tampa Bay the gap is 4. At -125 laying 5:4. Still I only lose this bet if the Bucs go 7-9. I don't believe there's a 45% chance the Bucs will be 7-9 or better.
Tennessee another good sized gap of 3.5 and price moved from -125.
Oakland the Raiders last year may be about where the Browns were 2 years ago. +120 premium is nice but gap is only 2.5.
Jacksonville gap is only 2.5 and young quarterback has potential to develop.
Jets since 2002 the Jets have had a number of bad seasons yet never been under 8 wins twice in a row. The last time the Jets had fewer than 8 wins twice in a row was 1995-1996 under Rich Kotite. Price at -150 is not inviting.
Washington steep price at -175 and gap is only 2.5. I think this is one where you wanted to do your research in July and hit the early lines before the price moves unfavourably.
So with that I made 2 plays
3 units Tampa Bay UNDER 6 wins -125
2 units Tennessee UNDER 5.5 wins -115
Friday, July 03, 2015
DUCY by David Sklansky
I recently read Ducy?: Exploits, Advice, and Ideas of the Renowned Strategist by David Sklansky. I got it for Christmas. It took me a while to read it. Typical of Sklansky there is a lot to think about so I read it a page or two at a time.
It was a good book. Not a poker book from Sklansky which was an adjustment. I enjoyed the stories from the Bob Stupak years in Las Vegas. There is a lot in there. It definitely makes you think, and that is a purpose of the book. The parts about a principled stand and being pragmatic were interesting. I liked the part about practical math and the importance and power of ratios and making an initial observation.
It was worth reading and I would recommend it. There's one more Sklansky book to go I would still like to read.
It was a good book. Not a poker book from Sklansky which was an adjustment. I enjoyed the stories from the Bob Stupak years in Las Vegas. There is a lot in there. It definitely makes you think, and that is a purpose of the book. The parts about a principled stand and being pragmatic were interesting. I liked the part about practical math and the importance and power of ratios and making an initial observation.
It was worth reading and I would recommend it. There's one more Sklansky book to go I would still like to read.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
played a poker tournament
I had some cycles the other day and I played in a poker tournament. it was a $5 MTT on PokerStars.
It was good to be playing again. I've missed poker. The tournament was fun. About 40 minutes in I got all in preflop 3 way I had AK vs A8 and AQ. there was an 8 on the turn and I was out. I didn't mind the result. I felt good that I got my money in thick to put me in position for a potential nice run.
thinking about it afterward there was a hand earlier I snap called a river donk bet heads up in position. however after I realized that the only hands I could beat on the river were bluffs, and there should be few bluffs in his range in that situation. oh well, some rust to shake off and I realized I played the hand a bit emotionally. it's all good a better play would have been to either fold, or bluff catch/fold with some balanced percentage such as 30/70. oh well.
I hadn't played a hand in some months. I'd been thinking about playing again. There were some life events last year and my poker bankroll was wiped out. I realized though that I can play occasional $5 events here and there out of pocket. After all even with rust I believe I still have at least $3 of equity in these events. So I can afford basically effectively $2 each to play if I look at it that way.
so that's that. I plan to keep playing tournaments here and there. $5 NL and Omaha on Stars. I've got a bit of money on Bodog too so might as well give that a $5 shot.
It was good to be playing again. I've missed poker. The tournament was fun. About 40 minutes in I got all in preflop 3 way I had AK vs A8 and AQ. there was an 8 on the turn and I was out. I didn't mind the result. I felt good that I got my money in thick to put me in position for a potential nice run.
thinking about it afterward there was a hand earlier I snap called a river donk bet heads up in position. however after I realized that the only hands I could beat on the river were bluffs, and there should be few bluffs in his range in that situation. oh well, some rust to shake off and I realized I played the hand a bit emotionally. it's all good a better play would have been to either fold, or bluff catch/fold with some balanced percentage such as 30/70. oh well.
I hadn't played a hand in some months. I'd been thinking about playing again. There were some life events last year and my poker bankroll was wiped out. I realized though that I can play occasional $5 events here and there out of pocket. After all even with rust I believe I still have at least $3 of equity in these events. So I can afford basically effectively $2 each to play if I look at it that way.
so that's that. I plan to keep playing tournaments here and there. $5 NL and Omaha on Stars. I've got a bit of money on Bodog too so might as well give that a $5 shot.
Saturday, January 03, 2015
NFL 2014 win totals in review
In my preseason win totals post I noticed that an extra 6.5 wins had been inserted into the preseason NFL win totals lines. Now that the regular season has ended we can look at this a bit more.
more winners than you might expect
despite the burden of 6.5 wins in the aggregate winlines, 18 of 32 teams came in over. 13 teams were under. Only one team, Miami, was right on its number.
more bad teams
in the preseason winlines only two teams were projected to win fewer than 6 games. Jacksonville and Oakland were both 5.
on the field 7 teams finished 5-11 or worse in 2014.
more skew on bad teams
looking at variance between the winline and the actual results, there was a fat tail of teams that performed well under expectation, the "wheels came off". in general it's easier to lose than to win and if a team gets into disarray then things can go really bad.
on the winning side only 2 teams were 3 or more above expectation
while on the losing side 6 teams were 3 or more below expectation
so that's where the extra 6.5 wins went. it was quickly absorbed by teams that were well under expectation
thinking about 2015
originally I thought there may be value in going with unders. as it turned out in 2014 only 13 of 32 teams hit the under.
for 2015 a strategy might be to look for bad teams, those likely to go 5-11 or worse. but I suspect this can be tough. it may not easy to tell when the wheels are about to fall off on a franchise. perhaps the best than can be done is to make a blanket play and take the under on teams with an opening winline of less than 6. that combined with some analysis of teams that may be ready to tank that are priced favourably.
meh I'm not sure it's worth the effort. I may leave off team totals and try to focus on getting more and better weekly game picks in.
more winners than you might expect
despite the burden of 6.5 wins in the aggregate winlines, 18 of 32 teams came in over. 13 teams were under. Only one team, Miami, was right on its number.
more bad teams
in the preseason winlines only two teams were projected to win fewer than 6 games. Jacksonville and Oakland were both 5.
on the field 7 teams finished 5-11 or worse in 2014.
more skew on bad teams
looking at variance between the winline and the actual results, there was a fat tail of teams that performed well under expectation, the "wheels came off". in general it's easier to lose than to win and if a team gets into disarray then things can go really bad.
on the winning side only 2 teams were 3 or more above expectation
| Team | Winline | 2014 Record | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 7.5 | 11-5 | +3.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.5 | 12-4 | +4.5 |
while on the losing side 6 teams were 3 or more below expectation
| Team | Winline | 2014 Record | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 | 5-11 | -3.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10 | 7-9 | -3 |
| New York Jets | 7 | 4-12 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 7 | 2-14 | -5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | 2-14 | -5 |
| Washington Redskins | 7.5 | 4-12 | -3.5 |
so that's where the extra 6.5 wins went. it was quickly absorbed by teams that were well under expectation
thinking about 2015
originally I thought there may be value in going with unders. as it turned out in 2014 only 13 of 32 teams hit the under.
for 2015 a strategy might be to look for bad teams, those likely to go 5-11 or worse. but I suspect this can be tough. it may not easy to tell when the wheels are about to fall off on a franchise. perhaps the best than can be done is to make a blanket play and take the under on teams with an opening winline of less than 6. that combined with some analysis of teams that may be ready to tank that are priced favourably.
meh I'm not sure it's worth the effort. I may leave off team totals and try to focus on getting more and better weekly game picks in.
Thursday, January 01, 2015
NFL regular season in review
So now the results are in on my preseason pics.
playoff props
on the playoff props I went 0-2.
lost
Miami to make the playoffs +350
Buffalo to make the playoffs +450
still I don't feel too bad about these. both teams were in the hunt until late in the season. I think these were ok picks with good upside potential and I needed a couple more breaks I didn't get.
team totals
on the team totals I went 2-4-1
won
Washington UNDER 7.5 wins EVEN
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 wins +105
lost
Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins -115
Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins +120
Dallas UNDER 7.5 wins -115
New England UNDER 11 wins -115
push
Miami OVER 8 wins +110
meh, I've been thinking a bit more about team totals. It wasn't a bad theory about marquee teams being overvalued. But I suspect my theory was incorrect. I've got some more to say about team totals which I'll save for a later post.
individual games
I went 3-0 in the individual games that I posted picks for. that's encouraging over a very small sample size.
unfortunately I didn't have much time and had to give up on my football experiment by early October. still maybe next year I will pick this up again if I can. it was fun and interesting at times.
I don't expect to have any playoff picks. The playoffs are a different beast and I'm happy to just sit back and watch the games.
playoff props
on the playoff props I went 0-2.
lost
Miami to make the playoffs +350
Buffalo to make the playoffs +450
still I don't feel too bad about these. both teams were in the hunt until late in the season. I think these were ok picks with good upside potential and I needed a couple more breaks I didn't get.
team totals
on the team totals I went 2-4-1
won
Washington UNDER 7.5 wins EVEN
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 wins +105
lost
Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins -115
Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins +120
Dallas UNDER 7.5 wins -115
New England UNDER 11 wins -115
push
Miami OVER 8 wins +110
meh, I've been thinking a bit more about team totals. It wasn't a bad theory about marquee teams being overvalued. But I suspect my theory was incorrect. I've got some more to say about team totals which I'll save for a later post.
individual games
I went 3-0 in the individual games that I posted picks for. that's encouraging over a very small sample size.
unfortunately I didn't have much time and had to give up on my football experiment by early October. still maybe next year I will pick this up again if I can. it was fun and interesting at times.
I don't expect to have any playoff picks. The playoffs are a different beast and I'm happy to just sit back and watch the games.
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