NFL 2014 team totals

I reviewed the NFL standings from last season.

After forming some impressions I checked pro-line to see what the team totals were. There wasn't anything useful so I checked out the bodog NFL team props odds.


These are some of my impressions.

The Bills look promising at 6.5 wins. The Bills finished 2013 strong and the differential was a respectable -49. similar teams include

Team	2013 Record	Points Diff
Tennessee Titans	7-9	-19
Baltimore Ravens	8-8	-32
Chicago Bears	8-8	-33
Buffalo Bills	6-10	-49
NY Giants	7-9	-89
Minnesota Vikings	5-10-1	-89

so the 2013 Bills look a bit like a 7-9 team in a 6-10 coat. They may have been unlucky and ran below expectation. This years team looks at least as good as the 2013 team so taking the over on the 6.5 win total looks like a good number.

The problem is the -150 moneyline. That means to break even they need to win 7 or more games 60%. if the target profit on a play is say 10% then we would need to be 64% confident the Bills will go 7-9 or better. the Bills last won 7 games in 2008, though they've won 6 games 4 of the last 5 years. still 64% confidence for 7+ wins this year is too much. now if the price came down to say -120 then we have a 10% expected profit if we're 59% confident the Bills will win at least 7 times then this may be playable.

Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were 8-8 last year and Ryan Tannehill is coming into his third season after improving in his second year. At an attractive price +110 I think there's value in taking the over on Miami. There's a pretty good chance Tannehill's development will be worth at least one extra win. Also there's an out that if Miami doesn't improve and falls back to 8-8 again then the bet is a wash.

Denver Broncos. At 11.5 wins the under looks good. Mainly due to loss of skill players on offence, aging quarterback and fatigue after last year's deep, disappointing run. However at -130 we would need to be 61% sure they will not go 11-5 or worse to have a 10% expectation on a wager on the under. That's a bit of a reach. But if the price improves to about -110 then this may be a play.

There may be a potential play in the playoff props. Separate plays on Buffalo +450 and Miami +350 to make the playoffs. Use Miami +350 as the base payoff. Then if one of them can make the playoffs 36% of the time then the wager would break even. It usually only takes 9 wins to make the playoffs in the AFC and I believe there's at least 36% one of them will get the 9+ wins and that will be enough to make the playoffs. The profit on this play comes from the times Buffalo gets in at +450. and it is an underdog but not farfetched that both Miami and Buffalo will make the playoffs which would be a very healthy payout of 4:1.