The topic of people entering tournaments under multiple accounts has been in the poker news lately. ZEEJustin himself, who has been a central part of the controversy wrote an informative post on it.
In a way what concerns me about it is how ZEEJustin and JJProdigy were caught. Their method of cheating was lazy, crude and unsophisticated. Exploiting a known bug in the software to enter tournaments twice under different accounts from the same computer.
The reality is that with just modest effort it is possible today for one person to multi enter tournaments without needing to exploit bugs in the client software. I won't detail it here, but if you think about JJProdigy's "grandmother" for a few minutes then it may come to you. This type of multi entering would be undetectable using the techniques that caught ZEEJustin and JJProdigy.
The implications are serious for the online poker rooms and their players. A sophisticated organized operator could expand the technique to cheat in a systematic big way. It will be a challenge for the sites to be vigilant to detect this. The next generation of cheaters will be far more subtle and sophisticated than ZEEJustin and JJProdigy.
Sunday, April 23, 2006
Monday, April 10, 2006
Deal or No Deal
I was doing some chores tonight - bleh, and my wife was watching the show Deal or No Deal in the other room. I was half listening to it. It doesn't seem like a very good show. However a situation came up that was somewhat interesting.
There were 5 cases left. One was worth $1 million. One was worth $200,000. The other three were not worth very much. The show offered the contestant $119,000 to quit. The contestant at the strong urging of her family accepted the offer and walked away with the $119,000.
For most people, certainly me, 119K is a great score that would make a real positive difference in your life. So I can understand why she was risk averse and took the guaranteed cash.
Now for a really wealthy person, it was not the correct move to accept the 119. A poker player would tell you the correct move was to decline the 119 and play through the end to get one of the cases. A wealthy person doesn't care about the $1M or the $119K as such, he only cares about making the most profitable move. The correct choice is the most profitable choice. Then it's a simple expected value calculation.
The player is guaranteed to get one of the cases at the end. One of them is worth $1M. One is worth $200K. Let's say the others are worth 0. Each outcome is equally likely. So the expected value E of chasing to the end is
E = 1/5(1,000,000) + 1/5(200,000) + 3/5(0)
E = 200,000 + 40,000 + 0
E = 240,000
So NBC wisely offered her only half of what it was worth to her to stay in the game and chase. Good financial move by NBC.
A Texas hold'em player is faced with pot odds situations all the time. A poker situation similar to the one on Deal or No Deal would be something like this.
Suppose you have a nine out flush draw on the turn. If you hit your flush on the river you win the pot. If you miss your opponent wins. Your opponent has bet $120 to bring the pot to $1000. Should you call?
Well the answer is of course yes. You have about a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the flush on the river and winning the pot. So your expected value is 1/5($1000) = $200. It only costs you $120 to chase and see the river card. So it is profitable to call. It would have been more profitable for the Deal contestant to chase.
There were 5 cases left. One was worth $1 million. One was worth $200,000. The other three were not worth very much. The show offered the contestant $119,000 to quit. The contestant at the strong urging of her family accepted the offer and walked away with the $119,000.
For most people, certainly me, 119K is a great score that would make a real positive difference in your life. So I can understand why she was risk averse and took the guaranteed cash.
Now for a really wealthy person, it was not the correct move to accept the 119. A poker player would tell you the correct move was to decline the 119 and play through the end to get one of the cases. A wealthy person doesn't care about the $1M or the $119K as such, he only cares about making the most profitable move. The correct choice is the most profitable choice. Then it's a simple expected value calculation.
The player is guaranteed to get one of the cases at the end. One of them is worth $1M. One is worth $200K. Let's say the others are worth 0. Each outcome is equally likely. So the expected value E of chasing to the end is
E = 1/5(1,000,000) + 1/5(200,000) + 3/5(0)
E = 200,000 + 40,000 + 0
E = 240,000
So NBC wisely offered her only half of what it was worth to her to stay in the game and chase. Good financial move by NBC.
A Texas hold'em player is faced with pot odds situations all the time. A poker situation similar to the one on Deal or No Deal would be something like this.
Suppose you have a nine out flush draw on the turn. If you hit your flush on the river you win the pot. If you miss your opponent wins. Your opponent has bet $120 to bring the pot to $1000. Should you call?
Well the answer is of course yes. You have about a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the flush on the river and winning the pot. So your expected value is 1/5($1000) = $200. It only costs you $120 to chase and see the river card. So it is profitable to call. It would have been more profitable for the Deal contestant to chase.
Sunday, April 02, 2006
New poker room at the casino
There is a new poker room at the Halifax Casino. I was at the Casino last Friday. I met up with an old friend who was in town for the evening. The new poker room is pretty nice. It's basically just a spacious rectangular room. There were about 8 tables I saw there. If necessary they could jam probably 10 more tables in there for a big tournament.
They just had two hold'em games available on this Friday night 5/10 limit and 10/20 limit. I didn't have the $$ to sit down. They have 2/4 limit on Mondays and Tuesdays. I'd like to start out there and see how it goes. I like limit. But I don't really have the spare money for 2/4 either so its in the future I guess. They have no limit tournaments too. There is a $100 buyin, 160 person tourney on April 8. Regrettably I didn't have the coin to grab one of the few remaining seats to be had for it.
The poker room was kind of sparse. Clean and well lit, but no themes or fancy decor. The new room was just recently openend, so I don't know if they are planning to add that later or if it is that way by design.
I doubt if the house makes a lot of profit on poker. Consider a 5/10 limit hand unfolding something like this.
preflop
- 6 players limp (pot=30)
flop
- EP bets, MP calls, LP raises, EP calls, MP calls, 3 fold (pot=60)
turn
- EP bets, MP folds, LP calls (pot=80)
river
- EP bets, LP calls (pot=100)
So at showdown suppose the rake is 5%, then the house makes $5. Compare that to the winning player. The winner put in $35 and collected $95, for a profit of $60. That's not the way things usually work at the Casino.
With that $5, the house loses a chunk off the top to the province per their operating agreement. With the remainder they have to pay the dealer's salary, the poker room manager's salary, utilities, and the rest of the cost of doing business. So I can't see the house making much profit on poker.
What I suspect is they use poker on a break even basis to draw people into the Casino and lure them away to more profitable games. People may show up to play poker but realize they don't care for folding 70%+ preflop, which you have to do to be profitable. Or it's a lot slower than on the Internet. Or they brought only $200 bankroll for 5/10 limit and quickly lost half of it, so moved on with the remaining $100.
--
Me and my buddy enjoyed a beer in the casino bar. Of course there were gambling machines in the bar. I found some quarter slots and played them for a little while. I ended up ahead $3. That's fine with me. I was within a whisker of hitting a $2000 score, but I just missed it. So it goes. I wasn't even expecting to get ahead at all so I'm not disappointed.
My friend was much more fortunate. He was up about $200 playing the quarter slot next to mine in the same amount of time. We then went to look for his girlfriend who had found a complicated swinging bells game in the main area. It was funny when I went to cash in my bucket of won coins for real cash. There was a lengthy lineup at the cashier. I nearly turned away to try again later. I realized that was exactly what the house wanted me to do, go back to the machines instead of cashing out. I kept my discipline and waited in that line about 10 minutes and cashed out my small profit.
My friend's good luck continued. While I was in the cashier lineup, he had managed to fill yet another bucket with won coins at a quarter slot machine in the main area. So that was about $200 more he was up. Good for him.
They just had two hold'em games available on this Friday night 5/10 limit and 10/20 limit. I didn't have the $$ to sit down. They have 2/4 limit on Mondays and Tuesdays. I'd like to start out there and see how it goes. I like limit. But I don't really have the spare money for 2/4 either so its in the future I guess. They have no limit tournaments too. There is a $100 buyin, 160 person tourney on April 8. Regrettably I didn't have the coin to grab one of the few remaining seats to be had for it.
The poker room was kind of sparse. Clean and well lit, but no themes or fancy decor. The new room was just recently openend, so I don't know if they are planning to add that later or if it is that way by design.
I doubt if the house makes a lot of profit on poker. Consider a 5/10 limit hand unfolding something like this.
preflop
- 6 players limp (pot=30)
flop
- EP bets, MP calls, LP raises, EP calls, MP calls, 3 fold (pot=60)
turn
- EP bets, MP folds, LP calls (pot=80)
river
- EP bets, LP calls (pot=100)
So at showdown suppose the rake is 5%, then the house makes $5. Compare that to the winning player. The winner put in $35 and collected $95, for a profit of $60. That's not the way things usually work at the Casino.
With that $5, the house loses a chunk off the top to the province per their operating agreement. With the remainder they have to pay the dealer's salary, the poker room manager's salary, utilities, and the rest of the cost of doing business. So I can't see the house making much profit on poker.
What I suspect is they use poker on a break even basis to draw people into the Casino and lure them away to more profitable games. People may show up to play poker but realize they don't care for folding 70%+ preflop, which you have to do to be profitable. Or it's a lot slower than on the Internet. Or they brought only $200 bankroll for 5/10 limit and quickly lost half of it, so moved on with the remaining $100.
--
Me and my buddy enjoyed a beer in the casino bar. Of course there were gambling machines in the bar. I found some quarter slots and played them for a little while. I ended up ahead $3. That's fine with me. I was within a whisker of hitting a $2000 score, but I just missed it. So it goes. I wasn't even expecting to get ahead at all so I'm not disappointed.
My friend was much more fortunate. He was up about $200 playing the quarter slot next to mine in the same amount of time. We then went to look for his girlfriend who had found a complicated swinging bells game in the main area. It was funny when I went to cash in my bucket of won coins for real cash. There was a lengthy lineup at the cashier. I nearly turned away to try again later. I realized that was exactly what the house wanted me to do, go back to the machines instead of cashing out. I kept my discipline and waited in that line about 10 minutes and cashed out my small profit.
My friend's good luck continued. While I was in the cashier lineup, he had managed to fill yet another bucket with won coins at a quarter slot machine in the main area. So that was about $200 more he was up. Good for him.
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