Nonetheless a marketing email from Bodog and I decided to see if I could find anything in preseason win totals. I know from last year it's tough to find value in preseason win total props. From last year's results I decided to look at bad teams from 2014 and see if there are any overly optimistic lines to take the under. These are the 6 teams who were 4-12 or worse in 2014.
| Team | 2014 Record | 2015 Winline | Price (under) | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 2-14 | 6 | -125 | +4 |
| Tennessee Titans | 2-14 | 5.5 | -115 | +3.5 |
| Oakland Raiders | 3-13 | 5.5 | +120 | +2.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-13 | 5.5 | EVEN | +2.5 |
| New York Jets | 4-12 | 7.5 | -150 | +3.5 |
| Washington Redskins | 4-12 | 6.5 | -175 | +2.5 |
The Diff column is the difference between the 2015 winline and the 2014 record. Here are some quick thoughts on all of these.
Tampa Bay the gap is 4. At -125 laying 5:4. Still I only lose this bet if the Bucs go 7-9. I don't believe there's a 45% chance the Bucs will be 7-9 or better.
Tennessee another good sized gap of 3.5 and price moved from -125.
Oakland the Raiders last year may be about where the Browns were 2 years ago. +120 premium is nice but gap is only 2.5.
Jacksonville gap is only 2.5 and young quarterback has potential to develop.
Jets since 2002 the Jets have had a number of bad seasons yet never been under 8 wins twice in a row. The last time the Jets had fewer than 8 wins twice in a row was 1995-1996 under Rich Kotite. Price at -150 is not inviting.
Washington steep price at -175 and gap is only 2.5. I think this is one where you wanted to do your research in July and hit the early lines before the price moves unfavourably.
So with that I made 2 plays
3 units Tampa Bay UNDER 6 wins -125
2 units Tennessee UNDER 5.5 wins -115
