week four NFL picks

as usual not much time for it. just one pick this week. taking Dallas +3 with a +105 premium vs New Orleans.

week two NFL - no picks

I liked Buffalo at +1 on Friday when there was a premium +120 to take the Bills. just checked and the line moved unfavourably to -115 on Buffalo at +1. I don't like it at that price. didn't have time to look at at any other games. so no picks this week.

week one NFL picks

haven't had any time to look at it unfortunately. just one pick

Atlanta +3 (+110) vs New Orleans

I liked Atlanta at this point spread. I think it's playable at +3, I was hoping it would go to +3.5. instead there's a +110 premium to take Atlanta and that should be enough.

moving my way

As NFL preseason ends it's a good time to check how the line moved on my preseason totals picks. There was a King Yao post on 2+2 a while back where he said that if the lines move in the direction of your picks then that's good and you're making good plays. So let's see where things are now.

My original picks are in the post just below. Here green is where the line moved in my favour and red is where it moved against me.

Miami OVER 7.5 wins -115
Miami to make the playoffs +275
Buffalo to make the playoffs +400
Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins -115
Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins +110
Dallas UNDER 7.5 wins -175
Washington UNDER 7.5 wins -115
New England UNDER 11 wins +110
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 wins -150

With Miami on the over it's a bit of a toss up whether 8 wins and +110 is better than 7.5 wins and -115. meh it comes down to how likely you think Miami is to finish 8-8 which is the better play. I think I prefer my original price of 8 wins and +110. but I'll call it even. Interesting that the Miami line moved down, as this matches my observation about there being some extra wins inserted into the original prices.

so overall it's a good result as the lines moved in my favour, sometimes a fair bit. at the end these plays may be successful or unsuccessful. will see of course. still I'm pleased with the prices I got on my picks.

maybe there's something there about preseason team props that it can be good to do your studying and make your picks before training camp opens. perhaps the early lines are softer. so for those interested in NHL and NBA team totals maybe you should do your homework now or pretty soon if the opening lines may have some softness. of course if you make your plays early you're assuming a bit of risk because there could be a significant injury or other development during training camp, but every team has that risk so it's a wash in the long term.