New micro stakes tournament

I noticed PokerStars has started running an interesting new micro stakes sit n' go. It's a $2.20 4 table satellite to the Sunday Hundred. The top 6 finishers get an $11 entry into the huge $100,000 guaranteed Sunday tournament and seventh gets $6.

I want to play in the big Sunday hundred but I typically don't have time for multi hour tournaments, plus it starts at 5:30 PM local time which is not a great time to be playing. The thing about a satellite is that if you win an entry to the tournament you can just unregister and the $11 is credited to your account as tournament dollars T$. The T$ can then be used to enter any tournament. So the way to efficiently convert T$ to regular bankroll is to use the T$ to enter tournaments where you have a break even or positive expectation.

This looks like a more profitable tournament than the $1.75 2 table sng I've played before. In the $2.20 The registration fee is only 1/10 the buyin. In the $1.75 it's 1/6 the buyin.

In a previous post, I determined that I need to finish in the top two 18.5% of the time to break even on top finishes in the $1.75.

In the $2.20 satellite the payout for the top six is level and 7th gets a healthy $6. So the average cash is 6/7($11) + 1/7($6) = $10.29. So I'd need to finish in the money 21.4% of the time to break even in the $2.20. It's easier to finish in the top 7 of a 4 table tournament than the top 2 of a 2 table tournament so the lower registration fee makes the break even point lower.

For ROI, I've run at around 80% in the $1.75, an average profit of $1.40 for every one I enter. To average $1.40 profit at the $2.20 level I only need to achieve 64% ROI. From what I've seen it looks pretty beatable, no tougher than the $1.75.


So I gave it a try and managed to win a seat in the first one I played in. I was helped along with some key hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (8 handed)

UTG (t2730)
UTG+1 (t4270)
MP1 (t1545)
MP2 (t2090)
CO (t2270)
Button (t4270)
SB (t1275)
Hero (t1640)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4c, 4h.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t150, 1 fold, MP2 calls t150, CO calls t150, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (t675) 2d, 4s, 8c (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (t675) Ah (4 players)
Hero bets t300, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls t300, CO folds.

River: (t1275) 9d (2 players)
Hero bets t500, MP2 raises to t1640, Hero calls t690 (All-In).

Final Pot: t3655

Results:
Hero has 4c 4h (three of a kind, fours).
MP2 has 4d Ad (two pair, aces and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins t3655.

In this hand villain limps in early position with A4s, not a good play. Then he overplays a weak two pair hand and doubles my flopped set, losing half his stack. Playing for stacks in a limped pot with 2 pair is bad. When the money goes in on the turn or river two pair is rarely good.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed)

UTG (t4315)
MP (t1565)
CO (t2310)
Button (t5220)
SB (t2875)
Hero (t3805)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9s, Tc.
1 fold, MP calls t200, 1 fold, Button calls t200, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t800) 9d, 9c, Qc (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t800, MP raises to t1365, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t565.

Turn: (t3530) 2h (2 players)
River: (t3530) 2c (2 players)
Final Pot: t3530

Results :
MP has Jd Qs (two pair, queens and nines).
Hero has 9s Tc (full house, nines full of twos).
Outcome: Hero wins t3530.


In this hand a bad player limps in early position with QJ a mistake. She'd had a big stack earlier but managed to lose most of it on bad plays. Then she raises all in on the flop with top pair and a weak kicker on a paired board. I have T9 in the BB and my trips are good to bust a bad player.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 ante 25 (6 handed)

SB (t5489)
BB (t9510)
UTG (t4817)
Hero (t6145)
CO (t4849)
Button (t2535)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8h, 8d.
1 fold, Hero raises to t6120, 3 folds, BB calls t5720.

Flop: (t11965) Ts, Jh, 9d (2 players)
Turn: (t11965) 7s (2 players)
River: (t11965) 4c (2 players)
Final Pot: t11965

Results:
BB has Ac Ad (one pair, aces).
Hero has 8h 8d (straight, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins t11965.

I've never won or gone deep in a tournament without getting lucky along the way. I have 88 in early position 6 handed with an effective M of around 6, so I pushed. Luckily I picked up an OESD on the flop and hit on the turn to suck out on AA.

After this lucky break I had enough stack to qualify so I just coasted in, not really playing any more hands.

Hand strength at heads up

At heads up hand values go way up. This can be combined with getting a read on the opponent to make some plays you might not make at a full table.

Here's the second hand of heads up. In the first hand I checked 78s in the BB and bet/folded bottom pair on the flop. Calling the raise would have committed me and I figured I was only beating a bluff.

In heads up any Ace preflop is a strong hand. I raise and get min 3bet. I have to call the 3bet because of pot odds and calling it pretty much makes me pot committed so I just pushed. I thought villain was kind of a donk so I wasn't convinced I was behind.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)

BB (t21075)
Hero (t5925)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ad, 3d.
Hero raises to t1500, BB raises to t2400, Hero raises to t5875, BB calls t3475.

Flop: (t11750) 9c, Ah, 2c (2 players)
Turn: (t11750) 6c (2 players)
River: (t11750) 7c (2 players)
Final Pot: t11750

Results:
BB has Kh 9h (one pair, nines).
Hero has Ad 3d (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins t11750.

Turns out my read was good and fortunately my lead held up. He was 3betting light trying to make me fold. Good to know.


I couple of hands later came this key hand.

Villain again makes a donk all in move. I figured if he had a king or a better Jack then he would have raised preflop. Plus in heads up middle pair is a strong hand so I called.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)

BB (t15200)
Hero (t11800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Jd, 8s.
Hero calls t300, BB checks.

Flop: (t950) Jh, Ks, 5s (2 players)
BB bets t14550 (All-In), Hero calls t11150 (All-In).

Turn: (t26650) Ts (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t26650) 2c (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t23250

Results:
BB has 3h 5d (one pair, fives).
Hero has Jd 8s (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins t23250.


Again my read was correct and my better hand held up giving me a big chip lead.

Villain then moved all in before the flop the next three hands and I just folded. I could afford to wait for something worth calling him with.

The next hand I'm dealt K4 and villain again is all in preflop.

The average hand in hold'em is Q7. I have K4 and if villain is pushing any two cards which it seems he was then K4 is ahead of his range. So I called the all in with king high.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text)

BB (t5350)
Hero (t21650)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4c, Ks.
Hero calls t300, BB raises to t5300, Hero calls t4700.

Flop: (t10350) Js, Kd, Qd (2 players)
Turn: (t10350) 2c (2 players)
River: (t10350) 4s (2 players)
Final Pot: t10350

Results:
BB has Ad 8s (high card, ace).
Hero has 4c Ks (two pair, kings and fours).
Outcome: Hero wins t10350.


Turns out he had the better starting hand. Luckily for me I beat him on the flop to take it down. It was fortunate overall to have my better hands hold up and my worse hand win. Still I was in good shape even if he won that hand and I think I would have won later on anyway.

A bit of luck

I needed to get lucky to win my first $15 pot at $0.25/$0.50 limit. I managed to parlay middle pair on the flop to a full house by the river to suck out on a flopped straight.

I think I mostly played it OK. Preflop I have an OK drawing hand QTs. When the early limpers call the raise I'm getting around 10:1 to see a flop with good implied odds if I can connect by flopping a good draw.

The flop is OK I have an oesd plus middle pair. I'm probably still behind here but I have pretty good equity so I bet. The flop was getting capped anyway.

The turn is misplayed. I improve to trips but that only pulls me ahead of MP3 if he has QQ-AA. I'm behind JJ, 99, AT and KQ which are all in his range and my checkraise gets 3bet. I think check/call is better on the turn and hope for more help on the river.

On the river I get lucky. The board pairs to give me the full house and my first $15 pot at this level. I won one at $0.50/$1.00 before but this one is more satisfying for some reason.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ts, Qs.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 9h, Jd, Tc (6 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG caps, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (15.20 BB) Td (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.35 (All-In), UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO raises, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (27.90 BB) 9s (5 players, 1 all-in)
Hero bets, UTG+2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls.

Results:
Hero has Ts Qs (full house, tens full of nines).
UTG has Ah 8d (two pair, tens and nines).
CO has Qh Kc (straight, king high).

Outcome: Hero wins 30.10 BB.


Strangely I then won another $15 pot at $0.25/$0.50 a few days later. This time it was KK unimproved over some really bad players. I was surprised at showdown to have the best hand. An overpair or TPTK are usually not good in a multiway showdown in a pot that large when that many people see the flop. I was lucky in a way.


PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Kc, Kh.
Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (32 SB) 9c, 4d, Qh (8 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (22 BB) 5d (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (27 BB) 4c (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Results:
SB has 9d Td (two pair, nines and fours).
BB has 6h 6d (two pair, sixes and fours).
Hero has Kc Kh (two pair, kings and fours).
Button has Qs Jh (two pair, queens and fours).

Outcome: Hero wins 31 BB.

Probability Stack

To be able to play poker well I think you need to be able to apply probability. Everything is built on the foundation of probability. Consider something like implied odds.

This example hand will illustrate. A tight player in a no limit game open raises 6x the BB from early position. It folds around to you on the button with 77. When villain makes this unusual size preflop raise he always has AA or KK. He will move all in the rest of his stack on any flop because he wants to win the hand there. What should you do, fold or call?

As stated, this question cannot be answered correctly. It problem is that it doesn't say how much money you and villain will have left in your stacks when the flop comes down. Without that you don't know your implied odds for spiking a 7 on the flop and stacking villain.

To use implied odds effectively you need to have a strong grasp on

---- implied odds extends pot odds
--- pot odds applies expected value
-- expected value applies probability
- probability is the chance that some event will occur


So at the base of the stack is probability. If your foundation in probability is weak or non-existent then you can't build anything on top of it and you'll be at a disadvantage when playing against opponents who have this ability.

Do you understand probability? The Monte Hall problem is a good probability comprehension test. Here's the problem quoted from Wikipedia

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

If you can answer this correctly and explain your answer within two minutes just thinking about it in your head without writing anything down then you have a good understanding of probability and you can easily use the concepts of probability and pot odds to your profit in poker.

If you can't get it then you just don't really get probability and you likely won't be very good at poker.

--

I once wasted about half an hour of my life on this problem. An individual was struggling with it and asked me about it. I explained the solution slowly to him several times, providing step by step descriptions and even doing a nice series of diagrams. After numerous attempts going over it he seemed to indicate he finally got it.

Then like two minutes later he asked something about the numbers on the doors which showed that he hadn't grasped it at all! He was still as confused as when he initially read the problem.