rake increase

Back in January there was an increase in rake at the local casino. It's now max $5, up from $4. Rake comes out at every $10 increment so now pots are rake free at the $50 mark instead of $40.

I got thinking about how this would affect the $1/$2 game. I estimate around 25 hands an hour are dealt. Of these say half of pots are $50 or more. So it's around another $12 an hour the house is taking off the table. ouch.

In terms of win rate. A tight player might win around 2 hands an hour on average. Of these maybe 1 would be $50+. So it might seem to cost $1 an hour in winrate.

However there is another effect and you lose money even on the hands you fold. There are a number of recreational players who buy in for say $60 or so. They are in a number of pots, up and down. If they bust they may reload once. If they build a large stack they may cash out. Once in a while a player will be able to stack one of these recreational players. Suppose you stack rec for his last $41 in some hand. That's nice to make $41. However by then rec may have won 2-3 bigger hands that would have been $5 raked. So his stack should have been around $44 when he busted. The house has taken money off the table that you otherwise would have won.

I'll estimate this effect costs regulars around $0.50 an hour. So together the rake increase would reduce expectation in $1/$2 by around $1.50 an hour. yikes.

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I got thinking of an alternate calculation. The house is taking an extra $12 an hour off the table. At a 10 player game suppose the house gave each player $1.20 at the beginning of an hour. What happens after an hour? In an average hour winning players make money and losing players lose money. So a winning player may make say 15 cents off the $1.20 and losing players would turn the $1.20 into perhaps $1.00. So the profitable player would expect to have around $1.20 + $0.15 = $1.35. Which is another way to calculate the effect of the rake increase on winrate. This is fairly close to the amount calculated above.

It demonstrates that break even and winning players are more affected. Which makes sense. Recreational players tend to just play until they bust. So the effect on them is generally that they bust a bit sooner and regulars earn less profit on them busting out.