Sunday, June 29, 2008

Continuation bet always?

The other day I played some limit hold'em. But I found I didn't enjoy it very much for some reason. Time for a change I thought.

So probably against my better judgment I returned to $5 NL, where I'd gotten kicked around before, where I vowed I wouldn't play again. But that was four months ago.

Not a lot to say for far about it. I mined a couple of sets and I'm actually up 1 buyin since my brief return. Nothing special but it beats being down yet another buyin.

One thing that I'm thinking about is continuation betting the flop heads up. I feel that I'm sometimes just throwing money away continuation betting on flops I miss if the other player, no matter how bad, has probably caught some piece of the flop, or knows that I probably missed.

So I've decided to mix things up a bit and randomize my continuation betting. This is just for heads up flops. In a 3 or more way flop it is much simpler and I would generally only cbet with a strong made hand.

For heads up I'm trying the following guideline for continuation betting the flop.
  1. continuation bet with a hand 75% of the time. check 25% of the time
  2. continuation bet without a hand 50% of the time. check 50% of the time
I need to define with a hand. I have a hand if I flop an overpair or top pair. Also a pocket pair with just 1 overcard on the board, or flopping middle pair [like AQ on a KQ3 flop].

Otherwise I don't have a hand. That would be Ax hands that missed the flop or hands like 99-TT with two or more overcards on the flop.

Harrrington said to use your watch to randomize your play, but online I took the opportunity to play with Python and wrote a small program to do it.

import random
import sys

print "Press enter for a number. Press 'x' or 'q' to quit."

while True:
instr = sys.stdin.readline()
firstchar = instr[0]
if firstchar == 'x' or firstchar == 'q':
break;

randnum = random.random()
print "The next number is ", randnum

I think that randomizing the flop continuation bet has some benefits. If you cbet 100% of the time then this is the case.
  1. I cbet with a hand.
  2. I cbet without a hand.
Since most flops miss most players cbetting 100% of the time can be exploitable both by skilled observant players who can read preflop ranges against the texture of the flop. As well bad players will call with weak made hands that outflopped you and you are just paying them off.

By randomizing the flop cbet you present your opponents a more difficult proposition.
  1. I cbet with a hand.
  2. I check with a hand.
  3. I cbet without a hand.
  4. I check without a hand.
With extra deception you are harder to read and exploit.

There are some consequences of course. For example by giving a free card on the flop you could lose on the turn. That's true but even if someone has as many as 15 outs then you are still good on the turn around 70% of the time.

If opponent has 2-6 outs then sometimes you'll lose to the free card when you could have won on the flop, but around 90% of the time you'll still be ahead on the turn, now with only 1 card to come.

Also with this approach it would be possible to preflop raise with AQ-AK, then just check fold the flop if you miss. These are tradeoffs you have to make.

I know this is $5 NL so many might think randomizing is silly. Perhaps it is, but at some point you have to start to think about it so this would be as good a place to start as any.

One thing I like about it is that it should create more involved postflop play. Hands may not be as well defined and there should be more turn and river play. That at least can make for more interesting and challenging situations. That would make it more enjoyable to play and I am just a recreational player.

Advanced players seem to feel that most profit and loss in poker occurs postflop so creating more postflop situations should be good for my game.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Tournament win $5.50 2 table sng

I took down a $5.50 2 table sng for the first time. I've been feeling pretty good about this tournament since I returned to it. Today I had some luck and some reads and picked up my first win. I haven't won an sng in a while and I must say this is a good feeling.

I'm not going to post the entire hand history because nobody wants to read all that. I will post the more interesting and important hands along the way.


Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 25/50 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: 2,045
MP1: 1,355
Hero (MP2): 1,520
CO: 1,470
BTN: 750
SB: 2,685
BB: 2,115
UTG: 1,560

Pre-Flop: (75) Th Td dealt to Hero (MP2)
3 folds, Hero raises to 150, 2 folds, SB calls 125, BB calls 100

Flop: (450) Ac 4d Ad (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 300, 2 folds

Results: 450 Pot
Hero mucked Th Td and WON 450 (+300 NET)

In this hand both SB and BB were loose players. I cbet the flop since 3 way I could represent an Ace defending against the flush draw. With 2 Aces on board it was less likely they had an Ace. Plus if I had the best hand I could chase them away since I don't want to see a J-K on the turn.

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 25/50 Blinds, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

CO: 1,820
BTN: 1,280
Hero (SB): 1,770
BB: 1,995
UTG: 2,285
UTG+1: 2,865
MP: 1,485

Pre-Flop: (75) 4s Ks dealt to Hero (SB)
5 folds, Hero raises to 150, BB calls 100

Flop: (300) 9s 3s 7c (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets 150, Hero raises to 400, BB folds

Results: 600 Pot
Hero mucked 4s Ks and WON 600 (+300 NET)

In this hand I made a bit of postflop play which I don't do a lot. I tend to play ABC poker which works well against this competition and I'm not very good postflop.

BB is loose and bad. I had a read that he will bet at the flop pretty much 100% of the time when checked to. I could have cbet the flop but if he had raised or floated me then I would have had a hard time staying in the hand. When he took a stab at the flop I check raised as a semi bluff. If he had nothing and was taking a stab then he might fold. If he called I had the disguised flush draw. As it happens he probably had nothing and he folded.

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 50/100 Blinds, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

SB: 1,720
BB: 1,080
Hero (UTG): 2,070
UTG+1: 1,395
MP: 2,985
CO: 2,715
BTN: 1,535

Pre-Flop: (150) Qs As dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to 300, 4 folds, SB calls 250, BB folds

Flop: (700) 8d Qd 3d (2 Players)
SB bets 300, Hero raises to 1,770 and is All-In, SB calls 1,120 and is All-In

Turn: (3,540) Ad (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (3,540) Jh (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 3,540 Pot
SB showed 2h 2s (a pair of Deuces) and LOST (-1,720 NET)
Hero showed Qs As (two pair, Aces and Queens) and WON 3,540 (+1,820 NET)

This was the first really big hand I won. These can be difficult spots. Here I flop top pair heads up on a monotone flop. His bet was weak and looked like a semi bluff on a flush draw. I decided to move in to try to defend. A flush draw was more likely than a flopped flush. If he flopped a set then he's getting paid off. I thought it was a bad call by him to play for stacks hoping I had AK or AJ and a flush draw. He should have folded to the flop raise. I guess that's why this level can be profitable, people making bad plays and losing their stack.

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 50/100 Blinds, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

UTG: 630
Hero (MP): 4,190
CO: 1,345
BTN: 1,585
SB: 4,065
BB: 1,685

Pre-Flop: (150) Qs Ks dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls 100, Hero raises to 400, 2 folds, SB calls 350, 2 folds

Flop: (1,000) Qd 7d 9c (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets 600, SB raises to 3,665 and is All-In, Hero calls 3,065

Turn: (8,330) Kh (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (8,330) 3c (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 8,330 Pot
Hero showed Qs Ks (two pair, Kings and Queens) and WON 8,330 (+4,265 NET)
SB showed 4h 4d (a pair of Fours) and LOST (-4,065 NET)

This hand was a bit tricky for me. The limper was bad, weak tight. I hoped to take it preflop or get the limper all in preflop as KQs likes to see all 5 cards. Instead the limper folded and sb called.

On the flop I generally don't like playing for stacks with just top pair. But I had a read on SB that he was a donk who could make plays without a real hand. On the 3rd hand of the tournament he had shoved Q9s in middle position over a huge donk preflop raise and he beat AT on the river.

On the flop my bet was a bit weak which might have shown weakness and encouraged him to make a move. I felt against this opponent top pair was good enough to get it in on the flop. It turned out well for me he was drawing very slim.

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

UTG: 3,405
Hero (CO): 7,955
BTN: 10,915
SB: 1,640
BB: 3,085

Pre-Flop: (300) Kd Td dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, Hero raises to 600, 2 folds, BB calls 400

Flop: (1,300) 6c Ks 8c (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 700, BB calls 700

Turn: (2,700) Ts (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets 2,000, BB calls 1,785 and is All-In

River: (6,270) 5s (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 6,270 Pot
Hero showed Kd Td (two pair, Kings and Tens) and WON 6,270 (+3,185 NET)
BB showed Tc As (a pair of Tens) and LOST (-3,085 NET)

This was another big hand that the opponent misplayed. Preflop I have KTs in the CO and raises had taken down a number of pots preflop.

I don't know what he was doing preflop, it seems marginal. If he had shoved preflop I would have had to fold.

On the flop he missed and his best move was to just fold. For some unknown reason he calls.

On the turn he improves but not by much. I suppose he should call because so much of his stack is in and he did improve. But he was drawing slim and got stacked. Again bad play by opponents is profitable for me.

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 4 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

SB: 2,805
Hero (BB): 10,540
UTG: 10,315
BTN: 3,340

Pre-Flop: (300) Jd 2h dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, BTN calls 200, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: (500) Jh 2s 7c (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 400, Hero raises to 1,200, BTN raises to 3,140 and is All-In, Hero calls 1,940

Turn: (6,780) 4s (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (6,780) Ad (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 6,780 Pot
Hero showed Jd 2h (two pair, Jacks and Deuces) and WON 6,780 (+3,440 NET)
BTN showed 6d 6s (a pair of Sixes) and LOST (-3,340 NET)

I don't know what villain was doing on the flop. It was drawless so I couldn't be semi bluffing. I either had to be way ahead of him or on a bluff. Maybe the checkraise was unexpected and caused him to lose his cool and tilt for a moment. In any case it was a bad hand for him to go bust on.

--

It was a strangely fast moving tournament for a $5.50 2 table and we were in the money before the break. No painful and protracted bubble for once. So stacks were a playable at heads up, which is a bit unusual. I noticed the opponent would open fold his small blind so I suspected he was a bit weak. I'm not a strong heads up player myself so any edge I could find I would hope to use. These are some of the more interesting heads up hands. I'm not sure if I played them very well or not.

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

BB: 13,220
Hero (SB): 13,780

Pre-Flop: (350) 6s Ts dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero calls 100, BB raises to 400, Hero calls 200

Flop: (850) 6d Qc Ks (2 Players)
BB bets 200, Hero calls 200

Turn: (1,250) 5d (2 Players)
BB bets 400, Hero raises to 1,000, BB folds

Results: 2,050 Pot
Hero mucked 6s Ts and WON 2,050 (+1,025 NET)

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

SB: 14,395
Hero (BB): 12,605

Pre-Flop: (350) 5s 6d dealt to Hero (BB)
SB raises to 600, Hero calls 400

Flop: (1,250) 4h 5h 8c (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets 600, Hero raises to 11,980 and is All-In, SB folds

Results: 2,450 Pot
Hero mucked 5s 6d and WON 2,450 (+1,225 NET)

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

SB: 12,070
Hero (BB): 14,930

Pre-Flop: (350) 6c 4h dealt to Hero (BB)
SB raises to 600, Hero calls 400

Flop: (1,250) 6h 3s Kd (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets 400, Hero raises to 1,200, SB calls 800

Turn: (3,650) 8d (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB checks

River: (3,650) 8h (2 Players)
Hero bets 2,000, SB folds

Results: 3,650 Pot
Hero mucked 6c 4h and WON 3,650 (+1,825 NET)

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

BB: 9,495
Hero (SB): 17,505

Pre-Flop: (350) As Jh dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to 550, BB calls 350

Flop: (1,150) 6d 9h 4d (2 Players)
BB bets 400, Hero calls 400

Turn: (1,950) 5s (2 Players)
BB bets 400, Hero calls 400

River: (2,750) 3s (2 Players)
BB bets 1,000, Hero folds

Results: 2,750 Pot
BB mucked and WON 2,750 (+1,375 NET)

--

Poker Stars, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

BB: 10,745
Hero (SB): 16,255

Pre-Flop: (350) 7h 8h dealt to Hero (SB)
Hero raises to 500, BB raises to 1,000, Hero calls 500

Flop: (2,050) Qd 6s 9s (2 Players)
BB bets 1,000, Hero raises to 15,230 and is All-In, BB calls 8,720 and is All-In

Turn: (21,490) 4c (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (21,490) Th (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 21,490 Pot
BB showed Tc Td (three of a kind, Tens) and LOST (-10,745 NET)
Hero showed 7h 8h (a straight, Six to Ten) and WON 21,490 (+10,745 NET)


The last hand I think was pretty bad by me. Preflop raises were not taking down pots so I should have just limped. After the 3bet I knew he was strong. On the flop he is likely to have connected with his 3bet range so I may not have had enough fold equity for the move I made, especially since I had used this move earlier on the flop and he had folded. On the river I hit my 6 outer and that's that I guess. I think that was the only really big hand I played where my money went in as an underdog. So that's not too bad I guess.


So that's that. I haven't won tournament in a while. I'd been in kind of a blah stretch. Hopefully this will help me to break out and I can get my bankroll out of neutral and increasing again.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

PokerStars $2.20/180 tournament

I was looking for a low buyin MTT to play on PokerStars a couple of weeks ago. I was a bit surprised to see some new 20 table/ 180 player tournaments have been added.

There's now a turbo $2.20 180 man tournament. That looks promising with the $2.20 4 table sats to the Sunday Hundred apparently now gone. The buyin is right for my bankroll so I've tried out playing in some of them.

The standard of play is pretty bad. Opponents will stack off light both preflop and postflop. Of course when people call all in so often there will be more crazy beats and variance. KQ is the nuts in this tournament when it comes to calling an all in preflop. I can't believe how often I've seen people call all in with good stacks with KQ. The turbo format increases the randomness. Variance is great when you're stacking off bad players but bad when it knocks you out. From what I've seen this should be a profitable game to be in.

Although it seems it should be profitable, I haven't had much success yet. In 15 attempts I have just one cash, a 12th place. My ROI is -87%. The sample size is small but it may be a combination of running bad and not playing well. I may need to make some adjustments for push/fold mode with M in the range of 3-8. With the 10 and 15 minute levels I was used to there was more time when short stacked to wait for a pretty good hand to move all in with. I may need to open shove with a bit wider range and be more willing to gamble to keep my stack healthy even though I know opponents will call very light.

Monday, May 05, 2008

Stars WSOP freeroll

This year PokerStars is giving away 80 seats in a WSOP Main Event freeroll. I've been taking my weekly shot at this. I enjoy playing in freerolls. There's something relaxing about them.

This is the first year I've noticed PokerStars has given away WSOP seats without having to spend any money. In previous years you at least had to spend $3 in a preliminary rebuy satellite qualifier, followed by a $33 satellite, followed by a $650 satellite for the seats.

This year the barriers to winning a seat are much lower. You only have to beat out other freerollers to win a seat. From playing in them, these play like your basic, well, freeroll. Bad clueless players, play money players, people being silly and playing like donkeys. While average and good players are free to participate in this event, the fields are dominated by really bad players. Which means that bad players are going to win seats; and a bad player can win a seat by only having to face other bad players along the way. That wasn't the case last year. While the $3 event may have been a donkament, the $33 and $650 levels were tough and very tough competition.

I usually play in the Friday 11 PM EST event. The field is around 2500 people. Since 50 people advance to the next round you need to finish in the top 2% to qualify for the next round. That's actually not that daunting as I've been able to finish in and near the top 2% in a number of big MTTs. So it is certainly doable; especially since the level of competition in this freeroll is lower than that even in a $1 MTT.

So I was hoping I could at least get through a round 1 event and win an entry into the weekly final tournament where the seats are awarded. Of course the weekly final would be a very long shot but I really just wanted to be in a tournament with the big prizes to be won.

I came pretty close last Friday. But I feel I messed up and may have blown my best chance of getting through a round 1 event.

I was having a nice run. My good hands were holding up, and I managed to stack a number of bad players. There were 117 left of around 2500 entrants. I had 45,000 chips. The average stack was around 30,000. I was around 25th in the leaderboard. Not quite enough chips to fold into a seat but getting closer. The top 50 finishers advance to the round 2 final tournament. Then this hand happened.


Poker Stars, NL Hold'em Tournament, 1,500/3,000 Blinds ante 300, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

SB: 88,775
BB: 35,656
Hero (UTG): 44,990
UTG+1: 46,493
MP: 3,132
MP: 50,809
CO: 14,668
BTN: 3,738 (sitting out)

Pre-Flop: (6,900)
Dealt to Hero (UTG) [Ac Kc]

Hero raises to 7,500, UTG+1 calls 7,500, MP calls 2,832 and is All-In, 5 folds

--> In a turbo with an effective M less than 6 the best move was to shove. I'd just moved to this table and had a lapse in thinking and made a standard raise.

Flop: (24,732) 7h 4h 7d (3 Players - 1 All-In)
Hero bets 37,190 and is All-In, UTG+1 calls 37,190

--> On the flop we both have around a PSB left. Most flops miss most players so I tried to take it with a go and go. Unfortunately he had hit his miracle flop and I was knocked out.

Turn: (99,112) Ks (3 Players - 3 are All-In)

River: (99,112) 3h (3 Players - 3 are All-In)

Results: 99,112 Pot
Hero showed Ac Kc (two pair, Kings and Sevens) and LOST (-44,990 NET)
UTG+1 showed 6s 7s (three of a kind, Sevens) and WON 99,112 (+54,122 NET)
MP showed Jc Qc (a pair of Sevens) and LOST (-3,132 NET)


I wish I had shoved preflop. Then UTG+1 would have folded and I would have chipped up by another 10K and would have been very close to being able to qualify with a top 50 finish. I wonder if this will prove to have been my best chance of reaching the weekly final.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

back to the sit 'n go future

I’ve started playing a new sit ‘n go game. I’ve been playing the two table $5.50 sng on PokerStars.

I had kind of forgotten about sng for a while. I’ve been playing mostly limit hold’em cash game, sub $5 MTTs and some $4.40 180 player tournaments. I hit a downswing in the LHE so I was looking for a change of pace that doesn’t take as long as a big multi table tournament.

I played the $6.50 turbo 2 table sng with some success. Although I was profitable playing them I realized I wasn’t really enjoying them. The turbo format is a blessing and a curse. It can be tough when you’re constantly in push/fold preflop and the blinds going up so fast. Any small run of bad cards can threaten wipe you out very quickly.

So I’m trying out some $5.50. I used to play them around two years ago when I first switched to real money from play money. I didn't really have any clue about how to play and wasn't properly bankrolled for that level. I didn't experience much success and wisely gave up after a short attempt.

I read HOH I and II and went on two plus two and moved down to the $1.75 2 table turbos. I had some success there and moved up to the $6.50 2 table turbos. I was profitable at the $6.50 level as well so this is basically the same level. The quality of play is about the same and there are a good number of fish so it should be profitable.

The $5.50 has a slightly different structure. The levels are 10 minutes instead of the 5 minute levels in the turbos. They take around 1 1/2 hours to complete. The 10 minute levels [regular MTT levels are 15 minutes] is about right as there is more opportunity to play and outplay people. Still it finishes in a reasonable amount of time. The play around the bubble is pretty poor as some players become very weak tight attempting to just scrape into the money. That is a good opportunity to chip up and build a nice stack. Fourth is a false prize. I think you need to be gunning to finish in the top 2 where the payout is thick.

I've found the $5.50 2 table sng enjoyable so far. They are a nice change of pace from the cash game. I'm around break even over a small sample size. I hope I can run well and they'll be a source of bankroll profit.

Thursday, April 03, 2008

Raised on the turn and river in limit hold'em

Getting raised in limit hold'em on the turn or river when you have top pair or an overpair is a tricky spot. At low stakes against generally loose passive players it's usually correct to fold. However a tricky player can exploit someone who is capable of bet/fold so at times it is good to call down. In a raised pot postflop the pot odds will be tempting to call down since you only have to be good a fraction of the time for the calldown to be profitable.

Here's a sequence of a couple of hands at a table I was playing recently. This was the first hand shortly after I sat at the table.


PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Qd, Qs.
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Js, 4h, 7s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 9d (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) Ac (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

Results below:
BB has 8d Jd (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Qd Qs (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins 7.25 BB.


I considered folding the turn to the checkraise. I had a read from watching earlier hands that BB was a bit tricky. It wasn't a bad play by BB on the turn, he had the gutshot plus 8x plus Jx as outs and some fold equity. Plus he might have the best hand on the turn if I'm double barreling AQ-AK. I'm glad I won the hand but I think it may have been a marginal calldown.


Shortly after that this hand happened.


PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kc, Ad.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 6d, Kd, 7s (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 4s (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) Qs (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

Results below:
Hero has Kc Ad (one pair, kings).
MP1 has 7c 7h (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: MP1 wins 12.25 BB.

This I think I probably should have folded on the river, despite the pot odds. The board is three flush, he raised the flop and then raised the river. This is not a bluff. Villain knows from a few hands earlier that I will call down a raise with an overpair so he's not raising me with less than a one pair hand because he's seen me call down with one pair. The board plus all the postflop action indicates top pair is no good on the river and the best play is to fold.