The topic of people entering tournaments under multiple accounts has been in the poker news lately. ZEEJustin himself, who has been a central part of the controversy wrote an informative post on it.
In a way what concerns me about it is how ZEEJustin and JJProdigy were caught. Their method of cheating was lazy, crude and unsophisticated. Exploiting a known bug in the software to enter tournaments twice under different accounts from the same computer.
The reality is that with just modest effort it is possible today for one person to multi enter tournaments without needing to exploit bugs in the client software. I won't detail it here, but if you think about JJProdigy's "grandmother" for a few minutes then it may come to you. This type of multi entering would be undetectable using the techniques that caught ZEEJustin and JJProdigy.
The implications are serious for the online poker rooms and their players. A sophisticated organized operator could expand the technique to cheat in a systematic big way. It will be a challenge for the sites to be vigilant to detect this. The next generation of cheaters will be far more subtle and sophisticated than ZEEJustin and JJProdigy.
Sunday, April 23, 2006
Monday, April 10, 2006
Deal or No Deal
I was doing some chores tonight - bleh, and my wife was watching the show Deal or No Deal in the other room. I was half listening to it. It doesn't seem like a very good show. However a situation came up that was somewhat interesting.
There were 5 cases left. One was worth $1 million. One was worth $200,000. The other three were not worth very much. The show offered the contestant $119,000 to quit. The contestant at the strong urging of her family accepted the offer and walked away with the $119,000.
For most people, certainly me, 119K is a great score that would make a real positive difference in your life. So I can understand why she was risk averse and took the guaranteed cash.
Now for a really wealthy person, it was not the correct move to accept the 119. A poker player would tell you the correct move was to decline the 119 and play through the end to get one of the cases. A wealthy person doesn't care about the $1M or the $119K as such, he only cares about making the most profitable move. The correct choice is the most profitable choice. Then it's a simple expected value calculation.
The player is guaranteed to get one of the cases at the end. One of them is worth $1M. One is worth $200K. Let's say the others are worth 0. Each outcome is equally likely. So the expected value E of chasing to the end is
E = 1/5(1,000,000) + 1/5(200,000) + 3/5(0)
E = 200,000 + 40,000 + 0
E = 240,000
So NBC wisely offered her only half of what it was worth to her to stay in the game and chase. Good financial move by NBC.
A Texas hold'em player is faced with pot odds situations all the time. A poker situation similar to the one on Deal or No Deal would be something like this.
Suppose you have a nine out flush draw on the turn. If you hit your flush on the river you win the pot. If you miss your opponent wins. Your opponent has bet $120 to bring the pot to $1000. Should you call?
Well the answer is of course yes. You have about a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the flush on the river and winning the pot. So your expected value is 1/5($1000) = $200. It only costs you $120 to chase and see the river card. So it is profitable to call. It would have been more profitable for the Deal contestant to chase.
There were 5 cases left. One was worth $1 million. One was worth $200,000. The other three were not worth very much. The show offered the contestant $119,000 to quit. The contestant at the strong urging of her family accepted the offer and walked away with the $119,000.
For most people, certainly me, 119K is a great score that would make a real positive difference in your life. So I can understand why she was risk averse and took the guaranteed cash.
Now for a really wealthy person, it was not the correct move to accept the 119. A poker player would tell you the correct move was to decline the 119 and play through the end to get one of the cases. A wealthy person doesn't care about the $1M or the $119K as such, he only cares about making the most profitable move. The correct choice is the most profitable choice. Then it's a simple expected value calculation.
The player is guaranteed to get one of the cases at the end. One of them is worth $1M. One is worth $200K. Let's say the others are worth 0. Each outcome is equally likely. So the expected value E of chasing to the end is
E = 1/5(1,000,000) + 1/5(200,000) + 3/5(0)
E = 200,000 + 40,000 + 0
E = 240,000
So NBC wisely offered her only half of what it was worth to her to stay in the game and chase. Good financial move by NBC.
A Texas hold'em player is faced with pot odds situations all the time. A poker situation similar to the one on Deal or No Deal would be something like this.
Suppose you have a nine out flush draw on the turn. If you hit your flush on the river you win the pot. If you miss your opponent wins. Your opponent has bet $120 to bring the pot to $1000. Should you call?
Well the answer is of course yes. You have about a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the flush on the river and winning the pot. So your expected value is 1/5($1000) = $200. It only costs you $120 to chase and see the river card. So it is profitable to call. It would have been more profitable for the Deal contestant to chase.
Sunday, April 02, 2006
New poker room at the casino
There is a new poker room at the Halifax Casino. I was at the Casino last Friday. I met up with an old friend who was in town for the evening. The new poker room is pretty nice. It's basically just a spacious rectangular room. There were about 8 tables I saw there. If necessary they could jam probably 10 more tables in there for a big tournament.
They just had two hold'em games available on this Friday night 5/10 limit and 10/20 limit. I didn't have the $$ to sit down. They have 2/4 limit on Mondays and Tuesdays. I'd like to start out there and see how it goes. I like limit. But I don't really have the spare money for 2/4 either so its in the future I guess. They have no limit tournaments too. There is a $100 buyin, 160 person tourney on April 8. Regrettably I didn't have the coin to grab one of the few remaining seats to be had for it.
The poker room was kind of sparse. Clean and well lit, but no themes or fancy decor. The new room was just recently openend, so I don't know if they are planning to add that later or if it is that way by design.
I doubt if the house makes a lot of profit on poker. Consider a 5/10 limit hand unfolding something like this.
preflop
- 6 players limp (pot=30)
flop
- EP bets, MP calls, LP raises, EP calls, MP calls, 3 fold (pot=60)
turn
- EP bets, MP folds, LP calls (pot=80)
river
- EP bets, LP calls (pot=100)
So at showdown suppose the rake is 5%, then the house makes $5. Compare that to the winning player. The winner put in $35 and collected $95, for a profit of $60. That's not the way things usually work at the Casino.
With that $5, the house loses a chunk off the top to the province per their operating agreement. With the remainder they have to pay the dealer's salary, the poker room manager's salary, utilities, and the rest of the cost of doing business. So I can't see the house making much profit on poker.
What I suspect is they use poker on a break even basis to draw people into the Casino and lure them away to more profitable games. People may show up to play poker but realize they don't care for folding 70%+ preflop, which you have to do to be profitable. Or it's a lot slower than on the Internet. Or they brought only $200 bankroll for 5/10 limit and quickly lost half of it, so moved on with the remaining $100.
--
Me and my buddy enjoyed a beer in the casino bar. Of course there were gambling machines in the bar. I found some quarter slots and played them for a little while. I ended up ahead $3. That's fine with me. I was within a whisker of hitting a $2000 score, but I just missed it. So it goes. I wasn't even expecting to get ahead at all so I'm not disappointed.
My friend was much more fortunate. He was up about $200 playing the quarter slot next to mine in the same amount of time. We then went to look for his girlfriend who had found a complicated swinging bells game in the main area. It was funny when I went to cash in my bucket of won coins for real cash. There was a lengthy lineup at the cashier. I nearly turned away to try again later. I realized that was exactly what the house wanted me to do, go back to the machines instead of cashing out. I kept my discipline and waited in that line about 10 minutes and cashed out my small profit.
My friend's good luck continued. While I was in the cashier lineup, he had managed to fill yet another bucket with won coins at a quarter slot machine in the main area. So that was about $200 more he was up. Good for him.
They just had two hold'em games available on this Friday night 5/10 limit and 10/20 limit. I didn't have the $$ to sit down. They have 2/4 limit on Mondays and Tuesdays. I'd like to start out there and see how it goes. I like limit. But I don't really have the spare money for 2/4 either so its in the future I guess. They have no limit tournaments too. There is a $100 buyin, 160 person tourney on April 8. Regrettably I didn't have the coin to grab one of the few remaining seats to be had for it.
The poker room was kind of sparse. Clean and well lit, but no themes or fancy decor. The new room was just recently openend, so I don't know if they are planning to add that later or if it is that way by design.
I doubt if the house makes a lot of profit on poker. Consider a 5/10 limit hand unfolding something like this.
preflop
- 6 players limp (pot=30)
flop
- EP bets, MP calls, LP raises, EP calls, MP calls, 3 fold (pot=60)
turn
- EP bets, MP folds, LP calls (pot=80)
river
- EP bets, LP calls (pot=100)
So at showdown suppose the rake is 5%, then the house makes $5. Compare that to the winning player. The winner put in $35 and collected $95, for a profit of $60. That's not the way things usually work at the Casino.
With that $5, the house loses a chunk off the top to the province per their operating agreement. With the remainder they have to pay the dealer's salary, the poker room manager's salary, utilities, and the rest of the cost of doing business. So I can't see the house making much profit on poker.
What I suspect is they use poker on a break even basis to draw people into the Casino and lure them away to more profitable games. People may show up to play poker but realize they don't care for folding 70%+ preflop, which you have to do to be profitable. Or it's a lot slower than on the Internet. Or they brought only $200 bankroll for 5/10 limit and quickly lost half of it, so moved on with the remaining $100.
--
Me and my buddy enjoyed a beer in the casino bar. Of course there were gambling machines in the bar. I found some quarter slots and played them for a little while. I ended up ahead $3. That's fine with me. I was within a whisker of hitting a $2000 score, but I just missed it. So it goes. I wasn't even expecting to get ahead at all so I'm not disappointed.
My friend was much more fortunate. He was up about $200 playing the quarter slot next to mine in the same amount of time. We then went to look for his girlfriend who had found a complicated swinging bells game in the main area. It was funny when I went to cash in my bucket of won coins for real cash. There was a lengthy lineup at the cashier. I nearly turned away to try again later. I realized that was exactly what the house wanted me to do, go back to the machines instead of cashing out. I kept my discipline and waited in that line about 10 minutes and cashed out my small profit.
My friend's good luck continued. While I was in the cashier lineup, he had managed to fill yet another bucket with won coins at a quarter slot machine in the main area. So that was about $200 more he was up. Good for him.
Saturday, March 04, 2006
Poker cover
Many people know, or know of someone like this. A young man, typically in his 20s. He lives a flashy lifestyle. Thick wad of cash in his pocket. He drives a BMW yet has no visible means of support.
You know what he does for a living. He's a dealer, a player, a hustler. Now when someone does this it can be a bit awkward to discuss his livelihood. A standard response if it comes up at say a house party is for him to say he does "import export". That explains the odd hours he keeps and his lifestyle. It's also code word, a signal for the person he's talking with to quickly move on and change the subject.
Now poker opens up new opportunities for the gangster to use as a cover. Instead of "import export", a hustler could instead claim that he's making $100 an hour "playing poker on the Internet". There are certainly people out there making that much and more on the Internet, so it is plausible. Also that would neatly explain how he could be hanging around the mall during the weekdays wearing designer clothes and driving a Benz. He can just claim that he likes to play late at night when there are lots of drunks online who are easier to beat.
One last thing about gangsters. They are apparently pretty good to play pick up hockey with. I heard a story about some guys who rented the ice for an hour a week. The way it worked was everyone paid up front for the season which was around 25 ice times. The cost was $200 per person. The organizer walked up to the player to get the money for the ice time.
The gangster pulls out a 2 inch thick wad of cash. He peels off three $100 bills and hands them to the organizer. The organizer says, "Uh, its only $200." The gangster waves him off and says, "Just keep it." So playing with gangsters made it a bit cheaper for everyone else.
You know what he does for a living. He's a dealer, a player, a hustler. Now when someone does this it can be a bit awkward to discuss his livelihood. A standard response if it comes up at say a house party is for him to say he does "import export". That explains the odd hours he keeps and his lifestyle. It's also code word, a signal for the person he's talking with to quickly move on and change the subject.
Now poker opens up new opportunities for the gangster to use as a cover. Instead of "import export", a hustler could instead claim that he's making $100 an hour "playing poker on the Internet". There are certainly people out there making that much and more on the Internet, so it is plausible. Also that would neatly explain how he could be hanging around the mall during the weekdays wearing designer clothes and driving a Benz. He can just claim that he likes to play late at night when there are lots of drunks online who are easier to beat.
One last thing about gangsters. They are apparently pretty good to play pick up hockey with. I heard a story about some guys who rented the ice for an hour a week. The way it worked was everyone paid up front for the season which was around 25 ice times. The cost was $200 per person. The organizer walked up to the player to get the money for the ice time.
The gangster pulls out a 2 inch thick wad of cash. He peels off three $100 bills and hands them to the organizer. The organizer says, "Uh, its only $200." The gangster waves him off and says, "Just keep it." So playing with gangsters made it a bit cheaper for everyone else.
Friday, February 17, 2006
Office poker tournament results
Eight people showed up for the office poker tournament. One guy freely admitted he didn't know much about it. That was cool, everyone was welcome to play. I think everyone else had played at least a little bit before.
It turns out one of the players once worked as a dealer at the Halifax casino. After a few hands he offered to deal the tournament. We all readily agreed. Actually, I readily agreed and as tournament organizer my decision was law. He was great, shuffling fast and flinging the cards easily across the long table.
I decided to go with a 40 chip stack instead of 30. Thirty just wasn't enough. The blinds went up fast according to the schedule. That worked well. One guy grumbled when he was short stacked and they were going up to 3/6, claiming it wasn't fair. But it was fair, he was just short stacked.
The play went well. It took around 1 hour. My goal had been for the tournament to run 45 minutes to an hour and a half, so I'm happy about that. The no side pots rule worked superbly to keep play moving fast and avoid any misunderstandings or disputes.
Sow how did I do, you're wondering. Well I won it!
I was getting good cards, AA once, KK twice, and QQ once. When I was strong people kept calling me and losing big.
When it got to heads up, the other guy had a slight chip lead. The blinds were 10/20 by this time. The first hand I had Q2o. I called the blind and he checked. Not much happened, he bet the turn and I folded.
The next hand I had K8o, but he folded preflop.
The next hand was the important one. I had KJs. I raised the preflop by 25. He reraised all in. I called and he showed KTs. yes! My dominant hand held up, leaving me with almost all of the chips.
After that he barely had enough chips to cover the big blind. He went all in with his remaining chips. I was getting about 6:1 to call so I did. I had high card but he caught a pair on the flop.
The next hand he suggested to go all in without looking at the cards. I agreed. He pushed without looking. I called without looking. He turned over 73s. I turned over QQ. ladies! He hit a pair on the flop to make the turn and river interesting but they were blanks and I was the winner.
It turns out one of the players once worked as a dealer at the Halifax casino. After a few hands he offered to deal the tournament. We all readily agreed. Actually, I readily agreed and as tournament organizer my decision was law. He was great, shuffling fast and flinging the cards easily across the long table.
I decided to go with a 40 chip stack instead of 30. Thirty just wasn't enough. The blinds went up fast according to the schedule. That worked well. One guy grumbled when he was short stacked and they were going up to 3/6, claiming it wasn't fair. But it was fair, he was just short stacked.
The play went well. It took around 1 hour. My goal had been for the tournament to run 45 minutes to an hour and a half, so I'm happy about that. The no side pots rule worked superbly to keep play moving fast and avoid any misunderstandings or disputes.
Sow how did I do, you're wondering. Well I won it!
I was getting good cards, AA once, KK twice, and QQ once. When I was strong people kept calling me and losing big.
When it got to heads up, the other guy had a slight chip lead. The blinds were 10/20 by this time. The first hand I had Q2o. I called the blind and he checked. Not much happened, he bet the turn and I folded.
The next hand I had K8o, but he folded preflop.
The next hand was the important one. I had KJs. I raised the preflop by 25. He reraised all in. I called and he showed KTs. yes! My dominant hand held up, leaving me with almost all of the chips.
After that he barely had enough chips to cover the big blind. He went all in with his remaining chips. I was getting about 6:1 to call so I did. I had high card but he caught a pair on the flop.
The next hand he suggested to go all in without looking at the cards. I agreed. He pushed without looking. I called without looking. He turned over 73s. I turned over QQ. ladies! He hit a pair on the flop to make the turn and river interesting but they were blanks and I was the winner.
Monday, February 06, 2006
Office poker tournament
At the office they are having a "winter olympics". The office administrator was looking for ideas for events.
I suggested we have a poker tournament as an olympic event. The administrator was enthusiastic and thought that was a pretty good idea. So I'm organizing the poker tournament.
I sent out the e-mail below describing the tournament. There are around 30 people in the office. I was hoping for around 5-10 would sign up for the tournament. Right now I know of around 7 people already who said they would play so that's pretty good. I can go up to 20 if there are more than 10 interested. In that case I'll run a two table tournament and combine into the final table when enough people get eliminated.
The tournament is on February 17. I'll give a report how it went.
- the poker game is no limit Texas hold'em
-- all skill and experience levels welcome to play
-- location is the mezzanine boardroom. Nice view with a good wide narrow table
- tournament structure
-- each player gets a starting stack of 30 chips
-- I know that's not a whole lot, but we want to keep things moving
-- might go with 40 depending how many players there are
-- standard rules around chip stacks: once you lose all of your stack you are out of the tournament, there is no re-buy or add ons, chips are non transferable between players
-- the minimum bet is always the big blind
- stakes
-- the tournament winner will get the "SPRT bracelet"
-- this is our version of the WSOP bracelet
-- sorry, no stacks of $100 bills
The office administrator is a keener. I suggested I'd go over to Zellers and get a cheap trinket bracelet for around $5-$10 with petty cash. Instead she asked me for a picture of the WSOP bracelet. I sent her the link. She said she'd get an engraved plate to put on a bracelet to make a nice prize.
- blinds
-- the blinds will go up on a 10 minute timer
-- blinds will go according to this schedule
1/2, 2/4, 3/6, 4/8
then 6/12, 8/16, 10/20,
then 15/30, 20/40, ...
-- no ante
- blinds at heads up
-- when there are only two players left, the blinds schedule above will be replaced by this schedule
-- the timer interval will be reduced to 8 minutes
-- the blinds will go up in multiples of 5 starting with the next multiple of 5
-- for example if the blinds are 6/12 when it gets to heads up, then when the running 10 minute timer expires, the next blinds will be 10/20, 15/30, 20/40, ... and the timer will be set to 8 minutes
- no side pots
-- when someone goes "all in", the other players can either call or fold, but cannot raise
-- the reason for this is side pots can slow play down considerably
-- keeping track of side pots can get complicated, especially when there is more than one side pot. The rules around side pots may not be well understood by everyone, which could lead to misunderstandings
-- a special case would be if someone goes all in, then someone else with fewer chips calls. In that case the smaller stack is all in and any bets above the smaller stack already in the pot are returned uncalled
-- for example, suppose player A has 20 chips, B has 50 and C has 15. Suppose A goes all in with 20. B calls with 20. If C calls with 15, then C is all in and 5 chips are returned to A and B uncalled
I suggested we have a poker tournament as an olympic event. The administrator was enthusiastic and thought that was a pretty good idea. So I'm organizing the poker tournament.
I sent out the e-mail below describing the tournament. There are around 30 people in the office. I was hoping for around 5-10 would sign up for the tournament. Right now I know of around 7 people already who said they would play so that's pretty good. I can go up to 20 if there are more than 10 interested. In that case I'll run a two table tournament and combine into the final table when enough people get eliminated.
The tournament is on February 17. I'll give a report how it went.
- the poker game is no limit Texas hold'em
-- all skill and experience levels welcome to play
-- location is the mezzanine boardroom. Nice view with a good wide narrow table
- tournament structure
-- each player gets a starting stack of 30 chips
-- I know that's not a whole lot, but we want to keep things moving
-- might go with 40 depending how many players there are
-- standard rules around chip stacks: once you lose all of your stack you are out of the tournament, there is no re-buy or add ons, chips are non transferable between players
-- the minimum bet is always the big blind
- stakes
-- the tournament winner will get the "SPRT bracelet"
-- this is our version of the WSOP bracelet
-- sorry, no stacks of $100 bills
The office administrator is a keener. I suggested I'd go over to Zellers and get a cheap trinket bracelet for around $5-$10 with petty cash. Instead she asked me for a picture of the WSOP bracelet. I sent her the link. She said she'd get an engraved plate to put on a bracelet to make a nice prize.
- blinds
-- the blinds will go up on a 10 minute timer
-- blinds will go according to this schedule
1/2, 2/4, 3/6, 4/8
then 6/12, 8/16, 10/20,
then 15/30, 20/40, ...
-- no ante
- blinds at heads up
-- when there are only two players left, the blinds schedule above will be replaced by this schedule
-- the timer interval will be reduced to 8 minutes
-- the blinds will go up in multiples of 5 starting with the next multiple of 5
-- for example if the blinds are 6/12 when it gets to heads up, then when the running 10 minute timer expires, the next blinds will be 10/20, 15/30, 20/40, ... and the timer will be set to 8 minutes
- no side pots
-- when someone goes "all in", the other players can either call or fold, but cannot raise
-- the reason for this is side pots can slow play down considerably
-- keeping track of side pots can get complicated, especially when there is more than one side pot. The rules around side pots may not be well understood by everyone, which could lead to misunderstandings
-- a special case would be if someone goes all in, then someone else with fewer chips calls. In that case the smaller stack is all in and any bets above the smaller stack already in the pot are returned uncalled
-- for example, suppose player A has 20 chips, B has 50 and C has 15. Suppose A goes all in with 20. B calls with 20. If C calls with 15, then C is all in and 5 chips are returned to A and B uncalled
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