I had some cycles the other day and I played in a poker tournament. it was a $5 MTT on PokerStars.
It was good to be playing again. I've missed poker. The tournament was fun. About 40 minutes in I got all in preflop 3 way I had AK vs A8 and AQ. there was an 8 on the turn and I was out. I didn't mind the result. I felt good that I got my money in thick to put me in position for a potential nice run.
thinking about it afterward there was a hand earlier I snap called a river donk bet heads up in position. however after I realized that the only hands I could beat on the river were bluffs, and there should be few bluffs in his range in that situation. oh well, some rust to shake off and I realized I played the hand a bit emotionally. it's all good a better play would have been to either fold, or bluff catch/fold with some balanced percentage such as 30/70. oh well.
I hadn't played a hand in some months. I'd been thinking about playing again. There were some life events last year and my poker bankroll was wiped out. I realized though that I can play occasional $5 events here and there out of pocket. After all even with rust I believe I still have at least $3 of equity in these events. So I can afford basically effectively $2 each to play if I look at it that way.
so that's that. I plan to keep playing tournaments here and there. $5 NL and Omaha on Stars. I've got a bit of money on Bodog too so might as well give that a $5 shot.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Saturday, January 03, 2015
NFL 2014 win totals in review
In my preseason win totals post I noticed that an extra 6.5 wins had been inserted into the preseason NFL win totals lines. Now that the regular season has ended we can look at this a bit more.
more winners than you might expect
despite the burden of 6.5 wins in the aggregate winlines, 18 of 32 teams came in over. 13 teams were under. Only one team, Miami, was right on its number.
more bad teams
in the preseason winlines only two teams were projected to win fewer than 6 games. Jacksonville and Oakland were both 5.
on the field 7 teams finished 5-11 or worse in 2014.
more skew on bad teams
looking at variance between the winline and the actual results, there was a fat tail of teams that performed well under expectation, the "wheels came off". in general it's easier to lose than to win and if a team gets into disarray then things can go really bad.
on the winning side only 2 teams were 3 or more above expectation
while on the losing side 6 teams were 3 or more below expectation
so that's where the extra 6.5 wins went. it was quickly absorbed by teams that were well under expectation
thinking about 2015
originally I thought there may be value in going with unders. as it turned out in 2014 only 13 of 32 teams hit the under.
for 2015 a strategy might be to look for bad teams, those likely to go 5-11 or worse. but I suspect this can be tough. it may not easy to tell when the wheels are about to fall off on a franchise. perhaps the best than can be done is to make a blanket play and take the under on teams with an opening winline of less than 6. that combined with some analysis of teams that may be ready to tank that are priced favourably.
meh I'm not sure it's worth the effort. I may leave off team totals and try to focus on getting more and better weekly game picks in.
more winners than you might expect
despite the burden of 6.5 wins in the aggregate winlines, 18 of 32 teams came in over. 13 teams were under. Only one team, Miami, was right on its number.
more bad teams
in the preseason winlines only two teams were projected to win fewer than 6 games. Jacksonville and Oakland were both 5.
on the field 7 teams finished 5-11 or worse in 2014.
more skew on bad teams
looking at variance between the winline and the actual results, there was a fat tail of teams that performed well under expectation, the "wheels came off". in general it's easier to lose than to win and if a team gets into disarray then things can go really bad.
on the winning side only 2 teams were 3 or more above expectation
| Team | Winline | 2014 Record | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 7.5 | 11-5 | +3.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.5 | 12-4 | +4.5 |
while on the losing side 6 teams were 3 or more below expectation
| Team | Winline | 2014 Record | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 8.5 | 5-11 | -3.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10 | 7-9 | -3 |
| New York Jets | 7 | 4-12 | -3 |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 7 | 2-14 | -5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 7 | 2-14 | -5 |
| Washington Redskins | 7.5 | 4-12 | -3.5 |
so that's where the extra 6.5 wins went. it was quickly absorbed by teams that were well under expectation
thinking about 2015
originally I thought there may be value in going with unders. as it turned out in 2014 only 13 of 32 teams hit the under.
for 2015 a strategy might be to look for bad teams, those likely to go 5-11 or worse. but I suspect this can be tough. it may not easy to tell when the wheels are about to fall off on a franchise. perhaps the best than can be done is to make a blanket play and take the under on teams with an opening winline of less than 6. that combined with some analysis of teams that may be ready to tank that are priced favourably.
meh I'm not sure it's worth the effort. I may leave off team totals and try to focus on getting more and better weekly game picks in.
Thursday, January 01, 2015
NFL regular season in review
So now the results are in on my preseason pics.
playoff props
on the playoff props I went 0-2.
lost
Miami to make the playoffs +350
Buffalo to make the playoffs +450
still I don't feel too bad about these. both teams were in the hunt until late in the season. I think these were ok picks with good upside potential and I needed a couple more breaks I didn't get.
team totals
on the team totals I went 2-4-1
won
Washington UNDER 7.5 wins EVEN
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 wins +105
lost
Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins -115
Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins +120
Dallas UNDER 7.5 wins -115
New England UNDER 11 wins -115
push
Miami OVER 8 wins +110
meh, I've been thinking a bit more about team totals. It wasn't a bad theory about marquee teams being overvalued. But I suspect my theory was incorrect. I've got some more to say about team totals which I'll save for a later post.
individual games
I went 3-0 in the individual games that I posted picks for. that's encouraging over a very small sample size.
unfortunately I didn't have much time and had to give up on my football experiment by early October. still maybe next year I will pick this up again if I can. it was fun and interesting at times.
I don't expect to have any playoff picks. The playoffs are a different beast and I'm happy to just sit back and watch the games.
playoff props
on the playoff props I went 0-2.
lost
Miami to make the playoffs +350
Buffalo to make the playoffs +450
still I don't feel too bad about these. both teams were in the hunt until late in the season. I think these were ok picks with good upside potential and I needed a couple more breaks I didn't get.
team totals
on the team totals I went 2-4-1
won
Washington UNDER 7.5 wins EVEN
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 wins +105
lost
Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins -115
Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins +120
Dallas UNDER 7.5 wins -115
New England UNDER 11 wins -115
push
Miami OVER 8 wins +110
meh, I've been thinking a bit more about team totals. It wasn't a bad theory about marquee teams being overvalued. But I suspect my theory was incorrect. I've got some more to say about team totals which I'll save for a later post.
individual games
I went 3-0 in the individual games that I posted picks for. that's encouraging over a very small sample size.
unfortunately I didn't have much time and had to give up on my football experiment by early October. still maybe next year I will pick this up again if I can. it was fun and interesting at times.
I don't expect to have any playoff picks. The playoffs are a different beast and I'm happy to just sit back and watch the games.
Saturday, September 27, 2014
week four NFL picks
as usual not much time for it. just one pick this week. taking Dallas +3 with a +105 premium vs New Orleans.
Sunday, September 14, 2014
week two NFL - no picks
I liked Buffalo at +1 on Friday when there was a premium +120 to take the Bills. just checked and the line moved unfavourably to -115 on Buffalo at +1. I don't like it at that price. didn't have time to look at at any other games. so no picks this week.
Sunday, September 07, 2014
week one NFL picks
haven't had any time to look at it unfortunately. just one pick
Atlanta +3 (+110) vs New Orleans
I liked Atlanta at this point spread. I think it's playable at +3, I was hoping it would go to +3.5. instead there's a +110 premium to take Atlanta and that should be enough.
Atlanta +3 (+110) vs New Orleans
I liked Atlanta at this point spread. I think it's playable at +3, I was hoping it would go to +3.5. instead there's a +110 premium to take Atlanta and that should be enough.
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