NFL 2014 win totals in review

In my preseason win totals post I noticed that an extra 6.5 wins had been inserted into the preseason NFL win totals lines. Now that the regular season has ended we can look at this a bit more.

more winners than you might expect

despite the burden of 6.5 wins in the aggregate winlines, 18 of 32 teams came in over. 13 teams were under. Only one team, Miami, was right on its number.

more bad teams
in the preseason winlines only two teams were projected to win fewer than 6 games. Jacksonville and Oakland were both 5.

on the field 7 teams finished 5-11 or worse in 2014.

more skew on bad teams
looking at variance between the winline and the actual results, there was a fat tail of teams that performed well under expectation, the "wheels came off". in general it's easier to lose than to win and if a team gets into disarray then things can go really bad.

on the winning side only 2 teams were 3 or more above expectation

Team	Winline	2014 Record	Diff
Arizona Cardinals	7.5	11-5	+3.5
Dallas Cowboys	7.5	12-4	+4.5

while on the losing side 6 teams were 3 or more below expectation

Team	Winline	2014 Record	Diff
Chicago Bears	8.5	5-11	-3.5
New Orleans Saints	10	7-9	-3
New York Jets	7	4-12	-3
Tampa Bay Bucs	7	2-14	-5
Tennessee Titans	7	2-14	-5
Washington Redskins	7.5	4-12	-3.5

so that's where the extra 6.5 wins went. it was quickly absorbed by teams that were well under expectation

thinking about 2015

originally I thought there may be value in going with unders. as it turned out in 2014 only 13 of 32 teams hit the under.

for 2015 a strategy might be to look for bad teams, those likely to go 5-11 or worse. but I suspect this can be tough. it may not easy to tell when the wheels are about to fall off on a franchise. perhaps the best than can be done is to make a blanket play and take the under on teams with an opening winline of less than 6. that combined with some analysis of teams that may be ready to tank that are priced favourably.

meh I'm not sure it's worth the effort. I may leave off team totals and try to focus on getting more and better weekly game picks in.

NFL regular season in review

So now the results are in on my preseason pics.

playoff props
on the playoff props I went 0-2.

lost
Miami to make the playoffs +350
Buffalo to make the playoffs +450

still I don't feel too bad about these. both teams were in the hunt until late in the season. I think these were ok picks with good upside potential and I needed a couple more breaks I didn't get.



team totals
on the team totals I went 2-4-1

won
Washington UNDER 7.5 wins EVEN
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 wins +105


lost
Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins -115
Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins +120
Dallas UNDER 7.5 wins -115
New England UNDER 11 wins -115

push
Miami OVER 8 wins +110


meh, I've been thinking a bit more about team totals. It wasn't a bad theory about marquee teams being overvalued. But I suspect my theory was incorrect. I've got some more to say about team totals which I'll save for a later post.


individual games

I went 3-0 in the individual games that I posted picks for. that's encouraging over a very small sample size.

unfortunately I didn't have much time and had to give up on my football experiment by early October. still maybe next year I will pick this up again if I can. it was fun and interesting at times.

I don't expect to have any playoff picks. The playoffs are a different beast and I'm happy to just sit back and watch the games.

week four NFL picks

as usual not much time for it. just one pick this week. taking Dallas +3 with a +105 premium vs New Orleans.

week two NFL - no picks

I liked Buffalo at +1 on Friday when there was a premium +120 to take the Bills. just checked and the line moved unfavourably to -115 on Buffalo at +1. I don't like it at that price. didn't have time to look at at any other games. so no picks this week.

week one NFL picks

haven't had any time to look at it unfortunately. just one pick

Atlanta +3 (+110) vs New Orleans

I liked Atlanta at this point spread. I think it's playable at +3, I was hoping it would go to +3.5. instead there's a +110 premium to take Atlanta and that should be enough.

moving my way

As NFL preseason ends it's a good time to check how the line moved on my preseason totals picks. There was a King Yao post on 2+2 a while back where he said that if the lines move in the direction of your picks then that's good and you're making good plays. So let's see where things are now.

My original picks are in the post just below. Here green is where the line moved in my favour and red is where it moved against me.

Miami OVER 7.5 wins -115
Miami to make the playoffs +275
Buffalo to make the playoffs +400
Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins -115
Pittsburgh UNDER 8.5 wins +110
Dallas UNDER 7.5 wins -175
Washington UNDER 7.5 wins -115
New England UNDER 11 wins +110
San Francisco UNDER 10.5 wins -150

With Miami on the over it's a bit of a toss up whether 8 wins and +110 is better than 7.5 wins and -115. meh it comes down to how likely you think Miami is to finish 8-8 which is the better play. I think I prefer my original price of 8 wins and +110. but I'll call it even. Interesting that the Miami line moved down, as this matches my observation about there being some extra wins inserted into the original prices.

so overall it's a good result as the lines moved in my favour, sometimes a fair bit. at the end these plays may be successful or unsuccessful. will see of course. still I'm pleased with the prices I got on my picks.

maybe there's something there about preseason team props that it can be good to do your studying and make your picks before training camp opens. perhaps the early lines are softer. so for those interested in NHL and NBA team totals maybe you should do your homework now or pretty soon if the opening lines may have some softness. of course if you make your plays early you're assuming a bit of risk because there could be a significant injury or other development during training camp, but every team has that risk so it's a wash in the long term.